Special Episode: Coffee & Conflict Interview with General H.R. McMaster
Mar 26, 2025
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H.R. McMaster, a retired Lieutenant General and former National Security Advisor, dives into the pressing challenges posed by a new alliance of authoritarian regimes like Russia and China. He discusses how these nations exploit perceptions of American weakness and the potential shift towards a multipolar world. The conversation highlights the need for innovative strategies against these aggressors and the importance of strategic empathy in understanding adversaries. McMaster also examines whether U.S. institutions are equipped to handle modern geopolitical tensions in an era of disinformation.
The coordinated challenges posed by Russia, China, and other authoritarian regimes exemplify a shift toward a multipolar world threatening American leadership.
Strategic empathy is crucial for U.S. policymakers to effectively engage adversaries by understanding their motives and avoiding miscalculations in foreign policy.
Deep dives
Geopolitical Landscape and Axis of Aggressors
The current global geopolitical landscape is characterized by an 'axis of aggressors' led by China and Russia, alongside allies such as North Korea and Iran. These nations aim to dismantle existing international rules and promote their authoritarian agendas, which threaten global stability. Recent events, including Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine and military cooperation with North Korea, illustrate this increasingly coordinated effort among these countries. The perception of weakness in the West, amplified by past strategic failures, has emboldened these aggressors, solidifying their coalition and objectives.
Great Power Competition and Revisionist Powers
The return of great power competition has exposed the flawed assumptions held by the West following the Cold War, particularly the belief that authoritarian regimes would integrate into a cooperative international system. Over time, it has become undeniable that nations such as China and Russia are not only resisting Western influence but actively working to undermine the existing order. Historical patterns of aggression from both countries reveal a continued expansion of their influence, which has often gone unchallenged due to miscalculations by Western leaders. This failure to recognize the true nature of these regimes has created a dangerous environment where strategic aggression can thrive.
U.S. Response to Russia and Future Strategy
The U.S. faces significant challenges in its approach to Russia, especially regarding the war in Ukraine and the nature of Vladimir Putin's ambitions. Diplomacy has often fallen into the trap of misunderstanding Putin's desires for a renewed Russian empire, which complicates the path to negotiating a stable resolution. While some believe that incentives can lead to a favorable agreement, history shows that Putin is skilled at manipulation and is unlikely to deliver on promises once concessions are made. As a result, any effective U.S. strategy must address the reality of Putin’s long-term goals while recognizing that he must be physically stopped to prevent future aggression.
The Need for Strategic Empathy in U.S. Foreign Policy
Strategic empathy is essential for U.S. policymakers to effectively understand and navigate relationships with adversaries such as Russia and China. Many past policies have failed due to a lack of understanding of the motives and perspectives of these nations, leading to misguided approaches that often inadvertently empower them. The idea of strategic empathy includes examining the emotional and ideological factors driving adversaries, thereby avoiding assumptions that can lead to further conflicts. Emphasizing this understanding in crafting foreign policy can foster a more effective response to the complex challenges posed by authoritarian regimes.
Today on Coffee & Conflict, Joshua Huminski speaks with General H.R. McMaster (ret.) about the emerging axis of aggressors—Russia, China, and others—and what their coordinated challenges mean for American power and global stability. They discuss how these regimes are pushing for a return to a multipolar world, exploiting perceptions of American weakness, and contesting U.S. leadership. He also examines whether America’s 20th-century institutions are equipped for today’s geopolitical competition and why strategic empathy is essential for understanding our adversaries.
What’s driving the alignment between authoritarian powers—and can the U.S. effectively counter it? Is Washington thinking creatively enough to both pressure and engage rivals like Russia and China? How should American institutions adapt to compete in an era of disinformation, proxy conflicts, and strategic influence? And as Europe takes greater responsibility for its own defense, could that shift unintentionally weaken transatlantic unity?
Check out today’s experts on Twitter:
@joshuachuminski from @CSPC_DC
@LTGHRMcMaster from @HooverInst, @FSIStanford, @FDD_CMPP, and @Hudsoninstitute
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