Bloomberg Surveillance Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Jurrien Timmer & Constance Hunter
Apr 15, 2025
Explore the intricacies of bear markets with firsthand insights from over a decade of experience. Hear how technical analysis sheds light on unique market traits during crises. Discover the impact of trade policies on recent market movements, including the challenges posed by tariffs and their historical context. The discussion sheds light on the interconnectedness of the U.S. manufacturing sector and global economics, making it a must-listen for market enthusiasts.
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Bear Market Patterns
- Jurrien Timmer discusses identifying bear markets using technical analysis.
- He notes a textbook pattern involving 10% and 20% drops, followed by rallies and subsequent breakdowns.
LTCM Crisis Parallel
- Timmer recalls the 1998 LTCM crisis as an example of unwinding crowded lever trades.
- He draws parallels to the current market situation.
Tariff Impact on Intermediate Goods
- Constance Hunter analyzes the impact of tariffs on intermediate goods used in U.S. manufacturing.
- She compares current trade policies to those of Juan Perón in 1945 Argentina.