The potential reversal of globalization is driven by trade tensions, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical factors.
Different aspects of globalization, such as trade in goods and capital market globalization, have shown varying trends.
Deep dives
Globalization and Free Trade
The podcast discusses the concept of globalization, its historical development, and the political and economic implications tied to it. It highlights how globalization has affected global growth, poverty reduction, inequality, and the cultural landscape. There is a growing discussion on the potential reversal of globalization due to trade tensions, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical factors.
Phases of Globalization Slowdown
The podcast outlines three phases of the slowdown in globalization since the 2007-2008 financial crisis. The first phase was marked by concerns about import competition and refugee flows, which led to increasing tariffs. The second phase emerged during the pandemic, influenced by temporary shortages and public outcry for export bans. The third phase was triggered by geopolitical events, like the Russian invasion of Ukraine, raising concerns about national security. These phases have contributed to a reevaluation of global trade and the rise of terms like 'friend-shoring'.
Data Analysis and Policy Shifts
The podcast analyzes data related to international trade, capital markets, and labor markets to assess the state of globalization. It shows that while trade in goods has slowed or slightly declined, capital market globalization and migration patterns have shown different trends. The podcast emphasizes that it may be too early to declare de-globalization, but policy changes, particularly in the US, indicate a significant shift in trade policy and supply chain resilience. These changes have the potential to reshape international trade in the future.
Send us a textThe three-decade era of globalization risks going into reverse according to company executives and investors. In this video we look at the economic evidence in a paper called Is the Global Economy Deglobalizing? by Pinelopi Goldberg of Yale University and Tristan Reed of The World Bank.Here is a link to the full paper: https://www.nber.org/papers/w31115Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor:&nb...
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