Masters in Business

Michael Mauboussin on How to Read Stock Prices (Podcast)

6 snips
Dec 17, 2021
Michael Mauboussin, the head of Consilient Research at Morgan Stanley Investment Management and finance professor, shares his wealth of knowledge on stock valuation. He discusses the evolution of 'Expectations Investing' and its emphasis on cash flow over traditional metrics. The conversation also dives into the shift from tangible to intangible assets, the importance of free cash flow, and the challenges of modeling company performance. Additionally, Mauboussin explores the interplay of human judgment and market efficiency, offering insights into investment strategies that adapt to changing market conditions.
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INSIGHT

Misunderstood Expectations

  • Investors often misunderstand "expectations" regarding stock valuation.
  • Multiples, like P/E ratios, are shorthand for valuation but embed assumptions about growth and returns.
INSIGHT

Earnings and Value

  • Earnings alone don't fully reflect a company's value; other factors matter.
  • Consider temporary one-offs or future growth potential.
ADVICE

Reverse-Engineer Expectations

  • Start with the known stock price and reverse-engineer the implied expectations.
  • Determine if the company will likely outperform or underperform those expectations to inform your decisions.
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