The Mike Hosking Breakfast
Henry Olsen: Polling analyst gives his thoughts on the US Election odds, the latest polling numbers
Nov 4, 2024
Henry Olsen, a seasoned polling analyst, provides intriguing insights into the US election landscape. He predicts a slim Electoral College win for Donald Trump, despite Kamala Harris possibly leading in the popular vote. Olsen discusses how political shifts to the right are impacting voter dynamics and highlights Harris's struggles to attract independent voters. He also touches upon the Democratic Party's strategic challenges and Biden's approval ratings, painting a vivid picture of the electoral battlefield.
03:48
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Quick takeaways
- Henry Olsen predicts a narrow Electoral College victory for Trump due to a rightward shift in voter sentiment and independent support.
- Kamala Harris struggles to resonate with voters on key issues like inflation and immigration, compounded by President Biden's low approval ratings.
Deep dives
Electoral Predictions and Trends
Recent polling suggests a possibility of Donald Trump winning the Electoral College, albeit narrowly, despite Kamala Harris potentially winning the popular vote by just over 1%. This prediction is based on observed shifts in the political landscape, indicating a rightward movement in the country, particularly among independent voters. Trump's improved standing with non-white voters, alongside ongoing concerns about the economy and immigration, plays a significant role in shaping voter sentiment. The unique electoral system means that even a small margin in the popular vote could lead to a decisive Electoral College victory for Trump.
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