Bankless Why Prices Are Crashing & What's Next—How Mike Nadeau Called the Cycle
Dec 3, 2025
Michael Nadeau, founder of The DeFi Report, is a cycle-based crypto investing expert known for his on-chain 'cyclamentals' analysis. In this discussion, he explains how on-chain signals prompted his risk-off strategy prior to the market crash. Nadeau delves into the impact of Bitcoin’s drop below key averages, the significance of long-term holder dynamics, and why current liquidity conditions might not support a market recovery. He also shares compelling Bitcoin price zones and his approach for building a watchlist for the next bullish phase.
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On‑Chain Holder Cohorts Predicted Risk-Off
- Michael Nadeau used on-chain holder cohorts to detect a lopsided market structure before the crash.
- He saw new money concentrated near ~102K while long-term holders were exiting, signaling vulnerability.
Wait For Two Weekly Closes Below 50‑Week MA
- Use multi-week closes below the 50-week moving average as confirmation of a broken bull structure.
- Require two weekly closes below it before shifting to a bearish base case.
Crypto's Unique 'Cheat Code'—On‑Chain Data
- On-chain holder tracking is a 'cheat code' unavailable in traditional markets.
- It lets analysts infer cost-basis, who is buying or selling, and thus cycle stage.