Rebel Capitalist News You Won't Believe The New Labor Market Data (Hasn't Happened Since 1969)
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Dec 5, 2025 George delves into surprising labor market trends, highlighting weak private-sector job growth since 2021. He discusses the implications of negative ADP readings as indicators of a deteriorating economy and potential recession risks. With initial claims hitting lows not seen since 1969, he examines the contributing factors and alternative signals warning of future labor challenges. Emphasizing low turnover and shifting hiring plans, he provides insights for investors navigating this uncertain macro landscape.
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Historic Private-Sector Slowdown
- ADP and other private-sector metrics show an unusual labor slowdown not seen since 1969.
- The trend has been steadily downward with recent months turning negative, signaling weakening private hiring.
ADP Signals Private Payroll Weakness
- ADP showed -32,000 versus an expected +40,000, highlighting private payroll weakness.
- Recent ADP readings have been declining since the post-COVID hiring surge and are now very low.
Repeated Negative Payrolls Are Concerning
- Negative ADP and non-farm readings across multiple months suggest the labor market's weakness isn't a one-off.
- Sustained negative private payrolls typically accompany economic contraction and recession risk.