CoinDesk Podcast Network Federal Reserve's December Rate Cut Chance Slides to 30% | CoinDesk Daily
Nov 20, 2025
The chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut has dropped to 30%, raising concerns during a data blackout on employment figures. Internal divisions among Fed officials about policy direction were revealed, complicating future decisions. Meanwhile, Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest made significant crypto-equity buys, signaling confidence in the market. Also, a CFTC nominee highlighted the need for clear regulations in crypto, but warned of risks if lone commissioners push policy solo. A dynamic discussion on the intersection of finance and digital assets!
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December Cut Odds Collapse
- The probability of a December Fed rate cut plunged to about 30% according to CME's FedWatch tool.
- The drop follows the Labor Department canceling October jobs data, leaving policymakers with limited information.
Data Blackout Raises Policy Uncertainty
- The absence of October jobs data created a data blackout that undermines policymakers' visibility.
- That uncertainty helped push markets to slash expectations for a December cut.
Fed Officials Deeply Divided
- October Fed meeting minutes show deep divisions among officials about pausing versus cutting rates.
- Those fissures further reduced market confidence in an imminent rate cut.