KunstlerCast_393 -- Chatting with Jacob Dreizen about the Ukraine Situation
Jan 31, 2024
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Chatting with Jacob Dreizen, an independent expert on the Ukraine conflict, about the war's ramifications, shifting narratives, disparity in casualties, and Russia's strategic objectives. Also explores the complex relationship between Ukraine and Russia and the challenges faced by both countries.
The West's support for Ukraine disrupted Putin's expectations of a quick capitulation, highlighting the asymmetry between the West's willingness to destroy Ukraine and Russia's concerns about managing the country post-conflict.
Russia's involvement in Ukraine is driven by strategic goals such as denazification, demilitarization, and securing naval bases in Crimea, while countering Ukraineization. They are unwilling to let Ukraine become a failed state and a burden for them.
Deep dives
Summary of the Podcast Episode
In this podcast episode, the speaker, Jacob Drazen, discusses the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. He shares his insights on the situation on the ground, highlighting how Putin's initial expectations of a quick capitulation from the Ukrainian government were disrupted by the West's willingness to support Ukraine. He emphasizes the asymmetry between the West's willingness to destroy Ukraine and Russia's concerns about managing the country post-conflict. The speaker also discusses the casualties in the war, suggesting that Ukrainian casualties are much higher than reported, while questioning the true intentions and capabilities of the US and UK in negotiations. He concludes that the conflict will likely end with Ukraine being ground down and its military ceasing to function.
The Goals and Realities of the Conflict
Jacob Drazen explores the stated goals of Russia's involvement in Ukraine, such as denazification, demilitarization, and securing naval bases in Crimea. He explains the strategic significance of controlling the Black Sea for Russia's exports and the concerns over Ukraine's potential NATO membership. He also highlights the Russian efforts to counter the Ukraineization of the country, which seeks to promote a distinct Ukrainian identity and separate it from Russia. The speaker suggests that Russia is unwilling to let Ukraine become a failed state and a long-term burden for them.
Challenges of Negotiation and Ending the Conflict
The podcast delves into the challenges of negotiating an end to the conflict in Ukraine. The speaker points out that Russia has refused to negotiate with Ukraine directly, viewing decisions as being made in Washington. While there may be back-channel discussions, the consensus is that negotiations with the US have not been productive. The speaker argues that there is no clear leadership in the US and that the Biden administration is incapable of managing the situation. He suggests that the conflict in Ukraine will continue until Ukraine is ground down and its military ceases to function, leaving Russia to manage the aftermath.
Perceptions of Joe Biden and the State of US Government
Jacob Drazen discusses the perception of Joe Biden and the state of the US government. He suggests that the Biden administration is deeply entrenched in the chaos and unable to dig themselves out. Despite expectations that Biden may step aside, the speaker believes that the administration will continue with Biden at the helm because they are unable to find a way out of the hole they are in. He asserts that there is no secret leadership guiding the government, but rather an absence of coherent decision-making and management.
Jacob Dreizin runs the dreizin report.com, a recently-paywalled, "boutique blog for discriminating shoppers of highly objective alt-news and forecasting." An immigrant and army veteran, Jacob has worked in the DC political sphere in high-level BS/spin production; has several graduate degrees, speaks fluent Russian; and likes to say he’s the USA's leading (or only) independent expert on the "history and culture of the Ukraine conflict." Jacob also specializes in explaining the influence of economic and ideological interest groups on U.S. politics and policy, and the processes and practices of the U.S. state propaganda apparatus as it relates to foreign policy and military adventures.
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