Tifo Football Podcast Will Man City beat Liverpool & what do stats predict 10 games in?
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Nov 6, 2025 Join data analyst Mark Carey, tactical expert Thom Harris, and football analyst Conor O’Neill as they dive into the thrilling clash between Manchester City and Liverpool. Mark reveals his prediction model's insights, while Thom discusses the rise of direct play dynamics across the Premier League. Conor emphasizes the importance of blending stats with context, particularly the value of second balls and event data. They also explore how the first 10 games might foreshadow the final standings, alongside intriguing thoughts on possession’s diminishing predictive power.
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Liverpool's Recentered Spine Restores Form
- Liverpool have regained defensive solidity by restoring a familiar spine of five players, improving recent performances.
- That compact low-block plus selective pressing lets them control games without dominating possession.
Anticipate Guardiola’s In‑Game Flexibility
- Expect Pep Guardiola to adapt his approach within matches rather than rigidly impose one style.
- Prepare for a reactive City who will shift between pressing and sitting in blocks depending on game state.
Model-Based Edge For City In Prediction
- Mark Carey's match engine (MESSI) uses per-shot xG to rate offensive and defensive team strength.
- His simulator gives Man City a 54% win probability and a 2-1 most likely scoreline.
