Interest Rates May Rise For Longer Than Most People Think: James Grant
Sep 16, 2023
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James Grant, a legendary value investor, discusses why interest rates may remain higher for longer than expected. He draws parallels between the decline of the Roman Empire and the current situation in the US. The impact of rising interest rates on the economy, including increased interest expenses and vulnerabilities in various sectors, is explored. They also discuss the future of the monetary system and the de-dollarization trend. The potential transition from declining to increasing interest rates and its impact on investor behavior is discussed.
Interest rates may remain higher for longer, leading to changes in investor behavior.
The vulnerability of private equity due to excessive leverage may lead to a crisis as interest rates rise.
Deep dives
Changing Interest Rate Regime and Its Impact on Markets
James Grant believes that we may be entering a new phase of rising interest rates after a 40-year decline. He emphasizes that this long-term shift can lead to changes in investor behavior, favoring yield investments and value investing over speculative tech stocks. Grant suggests that correlations between different asset classes and economic activity may also change in this new interest rate regime, creating new opportunities. He points out the potential benefits of investing in gold in this environment and discusses the increasing interest of central banks in acquiring gold as a hedge against the dollar. However, he notes that the sentiment of de-dollarization may be more of a political PR rather than a significant financial shift.
Vulnerabilities in Private Equity
Grant highlights the vulnerability of private equity due to excessive leverage and aggressive levels of debt. He explains that the low interest rates of the past decade have allowed private equity firms to borrow cheaply, leading to a significant increase in debt levels. Grant believes that as interest rates rise, private equity firms may face challenges in servicing their debt, potentially leading to a crisis in the sector. He mentions that this could have knock-on effects on banking solvency, especially for regional banks heavily exposed to commercial real estate loans and commercial mortgage-backed securities.
The Role of the Federal Reserve
Grant expresses concerns about the Federal Reserve's communication strategies and the perception of its expertness and competence. He suggests that the Fed should speak with more humility and avoid making long-term forecasts and guarantees about the future of interest rates and the economy. Grant advocates for allowing markets to determine clearing interest rates rather than imposing them bureaucratically. He also raises the idea of reconsidering the nature of money, including the possibility of collateralizing it with gold and returning to a system of fixed exchange rates.
De-dollarization and the Role of the Dollar
Grant views the conversation around de-dollarization as more of a political talking point than a substantive financial shift. He believes that the US dollar still holds significant advantages as a familiar and widely accepted medium of exchange. While acknowledging the potential for a slow shift in currency preferences over the long term, Grant emphasizes the enduring strength of the dollar's reputation and its dominant position in global transactions. He notes that gold continues to play a role as a financial safety option and highlights the increasing interest of central banks in acquiring gold as a reserve asset.
Legendary value investor James Grant makes his case for why interest rates may remain higher for much longer than many investors anticipate. Jame argues that this shift in the market landscape could change investor behavior towards seeking yield, just as it presents a myriad of problems for the Fed and powers-that-be.