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The Jay Martin Show

Interest Rates May Rise For Longer Than Most People Think: James Grant

Sep 16, 2023
James Grant, a legendary value investor, discusses why interest rates may remain higher for longer than expected. He draws parallels between the decline of the Roman Empire and the current situation in the US. The impact of rising interest rates on the economy, including increased interest expenses and vulnerabilities in various sectors, is explored. They also discuss the future of the monetary system and the de-dollarization trend. The potential transition from declining to increasing interest rates and its impact on investor behavior is discussed.
54:23

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Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • Interest rates may remain higher for longer, leading to changes in investor behavior.
  • The vulnerability of private equity due to excessive leverage may lead to a crisis as interest rates rise.

Deep dives

Changing Interest Rate Regime and Its Impact on Markets

James Grant believes that we may be entering a new phase of rising interest rates after a 40-year decline. He emphasizes that this long-term shift can lead to changes in investor behavior, favoring yield investments and value investing over speculative tech stocks. Grant suggests that correlations between different asset classes and economic activity may also change in this new interest rate regime, creating new opportunities. He points out the potential benefits of investing in gold in this environment and discusses the increasing interest of central banks in acquiring gold as a hedge against the dollar. However, he notes that the sentiment of de-dollarization may be more of a political PR rather than a significant financial shift.

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