Exploring the risk of government bonds defaulting and their status as the world's safest asset. Discussing the recent downgrade of US debt and its implications. Examining how the credit spread reflects default risk. Understanding the importance of the risk-free rate in finance and the role of central banks. Delving into the possibility of sovereign defaults in developed markets. Exploring the concern over government default risk and comparing bonds to cash. Explaining duration risk and the potential for higher returns from bonds.
Government bonds, once considered risk-free, are now being questioned due to rising national debts and dwindling credit ratings.
The perception of government bonds as risk-free has been changing, with the number of AAA-rated countries decreasing over time.
Deep dives
Risk-free assumption of government bonds questioned
The podcast discusses the notion of government bonds being considered the world's safest asset and examines the rising national debts and dwindling credit ratings that raise doubts about their status as risk-free investments. The downgrade of the US debt by Fitch and the historical instances of defaults by governments are explored, highlighting the changing perception of risk associated with government bonds.
AAA-rated countries and the dwindling list
The podcast reveals that there are still several countries with AAA credit ratings, but their number has been declining over time. Surprising countries such as Australia and Canada are mentioned as AAA-rated, while the list of risk-free countries continues to shrink.
The importance of the risk-free rate
The podcast explains the significance of the risk-free rate in finance. It serves as a reference point for pricing assets and determining a minimum acceptable return from investments. The risk-free rate underpins various calculations, such as present value and discounting future cash flows.
Implications of default risk on investors
The podcast speculates on the potential implications if investors were to perceive government bonds as carrying default risk. It discusses the potential impact on asset valuations, such as bonds and safe-haven assets, and the behavior of investors during market crises. Market timing and allocation strategies are also briefly touched upon.
Government bonds are considered the world's safest asset, setting the "risk-free rate" against which all other investments are judged. But with rising national debts and dwindling credit ratings, are they really above question?
We discuss the implications for investors if government bonds are actually at risk of default.
And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why choose bonds over simply holding cash?
This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.
Copyright 2023 Many Happy Returns
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