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When investing in Microsoft, the focus was on the Outlook business, believing it to be a valuable part of the company. Recognizing that every office had Microsoft software, it was viewed as a secure investment. The company also had a great balance sheet and was buying back stock. Satya Nadella's tenure as CEO led to further improvements and successes for the business.
American Tower was discovered when it was part of American Radio Systems. The potential of the cell tower business was recognized, and the decision was made to aggregate and externalize the towers into a separate business. Recognizing the growing need for cell sites in the digital communications era, American Tower became a compelling investment. The company had strong economics, with low operating costs and high rental rates. The assumption that digital communications would continue to grow fueled confidence in the investment.
Both the investments in Microsoft and American Tower exemplify the search for businesses with long-term secular tailwinds. These businesses were chosen based on their potential for continued growth and market demand. The simple secular tailwinds, such as the widespread use of Microsoft software and the increasing need for cell sites in digital communications, were factors that influenced the investment decisions.
Concentration is a key aspect of the investment approach, with a focus on owning a manageable number of businesses (around 10-12) that can be deeply understood and risk-sized effectively. A margin of safety is sought through careful evaluation of businesses and their inherent value. By identifying superior businesses and buying them at discounted prices, the potential for long-term success and value creation is increased.
Investing with CEOs who have integrity and are of high quality is essential. It is important to evaluate the character and values of management when assessing investment opportunities. The ability to assess the quality of management comes from intuition, understanding financial incentives, and observing their behavior in the past. Investing with CEOs who view shareholders as partners and prioritize the long-term interests of the business can lead to successful investments. Humility is crucial in the investment business. Recognizing the role of luck and being aware that there are always others who are smarter creates a mindset of humility. Being humble helps avoid hubris and complacency, allowing for continuous growth and learning.
Farming and observing nature provide valuable insights applicable to investing. On a farm, there are no small mistakes, and paying attention to detail is crucial to prevent catastrophic outcomes. Similarly, in investing, being focused and aware of potential risks is essential. Understanding the natural balance of competition and business models in the wild can guide investment decisions. Apex predators in nature hunt rarely but with precision, only targeting big game. This translates to investing by waiting for opportune moments and seizing them with confidence. Nature teaches valuable lessons that can shape investing strategies and decision-making.
Investing is not just about financial gain, but also about serving others. The ability to help others with their financial needs, retirement savings, and children's education is a sacred trust. Giving back and helping those who may not have access to competent investment advice is a responsibility worth embracing. Success in investing should be measured not only by financial returns, but also by the positive impact made in the lives of others. Sharing knowledge and assisting organizations, communities, and individuals in achieving their financial goals creates a fulfilling and purposeful life.
Humility is crucial in both investing and life. Recognizing that success as an investor is a gift and not a source of pride is essential. Humility allows for seeing the role of luck and understanding that others may be smarter or more skilled. Staying humble helps avoid hubris and complacency, leading to continuous improvement and growth. Being aware that everyone is competing in their own way and understanding the importance of giving one's best effort in all endeavors promotes personal and professional development. Humility also strengthens relationships, fosters a sense of service, and ensures a focus on ethical conduct.
In this episode, William Green chats with Peter Keefe, an outstanding investor who’s trounced the market over three decades. Here, Peter discusses his timeless investing principles, what he looks for in a great business, how he evaluates the quality of management, why he loves Microsoft & Markel, why managing money is a high calling, & what investors can learn from apex predators.
IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:
00:00 - Intro
02:55 - How Peter Keefe taught himself to invest intelligently.
07:59 - Why he loathed selling stocks as a broker on commission.
28:12 - How Peter built a dazzling record based on timeless principles.
31:49 - Why he views selling great businesses too early as his costliest mistake.
38:46 - Why he ignores economic predictions.
42:50 - Why he owns a concentrated portfolio of 10-12 stocks.
47:39 - How Microsoft & Markel embody what he looks for in a business
52:28 - How he made hundreds of times his money on American Tower.
1:14:33 - How he evaluates the quality of management.
1:25:52 - What investors should learn from apex predators.
1:43:29 - Why humility is an indispensable virtue for investors.
1:44:22 - Why a money manager’s principal motivation should be to serve others.
1:46:30 - How Peter measures a successful life.
Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.
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