The ACID Capitalist Podcast Acid Breath - Shadowlight - 9th October 2025
Oct 10, 2025
Dive into the recent trends of inflation as a new private CPI disrupts traditional narratives. Discover how media misinterprets data amidst a government shutdown. Jobless claims reveal a cooling labor market without recession fears. The significance of a 30-year auction showcases strong investor appetite. Jamie Dimon stirs the pot with predictions of a looming market correction. Hugh emphasizes the importance of imagination and patience in investing, urging listeners to navigate data like a seasoned pro.
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Shadow CPIs Fill A Vacuum
- When the official data pipeline paused, private firms like OpenBrand rushed to fill the void with their own CPI-like numbers.
- Hugh Hendry warns these fast-born indices lack long histories and can mislead markets when treated as the official truth.
Short Histories Make Big Headlines
- OpenBrand reported a 0.6% monthly rise but lacked year-over-year comparisons, exposing its short history.
- Hendry highlights that small-sample, goods-only indices can be noisy and easily misinterpreted by the press.
Verify Data Before Trading
- Treat any data that moves markets as a rumor until you understand its construction and coverage.
- Verify whether a series is comprehensive or just a niche goods sample before trusting it for trading decisions.