Insights from 15 years leading the self-driving vehicle industry, with Sterling Anderson
Nov 5, 2024
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Sterling Anderson, a pioneer in self-driving vehicles with a PhD from MIT, shares his insights on the future of transportation. He discusses Aurora's goal to launch fully autonomous trucks between Dallas and Houston by 2025. Sterling highlights the economic benefits of self-driving trucks, addressing driver shortages and safety challenges. The conversation also touches on the ongoing debate over data quality versus quantity in AI training, and contrasts global regulatory approaches to self-driving technology in the US, Europe, and China.
Aurora's innovative approach in utilizing virtual testing allows for rapid development and extensive scenario exposure for self-driving technology.
The deployment of autonomous trucks addresses critical workforce shortages while enhancing road safety and efficiency in the trucking industry.
Deep dives
Deployment of Self-Driving Trucks in Texas
Aurora plans to deploy fully self-driving trucks in Texas, with three dozen trucks already commercially operating on routes between Dallas and Houston, as well as Fort Worth and El Paso. Currently, these trucks are supervised by onboard humans, who monitor and annotate the vehicle's performance, but the company expects to remove human oversight soon. The deployment of these autonomous trucks is viewed as a significant milestone for the development of self-driving vehicles, aiming to operate without human intervention on well-established routes. The journey from Dallas to Houston is approximately 200 miles, taking about three to three and a half hours, while the Fort Worth to El Paso route stretches nearly ten hours, showcasing the capacity for long-distance transport.
The Commercial Advantage of Self-Driving Trucks
The trucking industry in the U.S. is valued at one trillion dollars, with 70% of goods transported by trucks, making self-driving trucks commercially advantageous. Traditional human drivers face limitations, such as mandatory breaks and maximum driving hours, which self-driving systems can overcome, allowing for continuous operation. Additionally, the implementation of autonomous trucking significantly enhances safety on the roads, potentially reducing the high incidence of crashes involving heavy trucks. With an anticipated truck driver shortage of 80,000, the self-driving truck technology addresses a critical gap in the workforce, promising to create a safer and more efficient transportation network.
Innovative Approaches to Self-Driving Technology
Aurora has adopted a unique approach to developing its self-driving technology, emphasizing the use of virtual testing over traditional on-road empirical methods. This strategy allows for faster iterations and extensive exposure to various driving scenarios that a typical fleet would not encounter within tangible driving limits. The company has also developed a system called 'verifiable AI,' which ensures that its autonomous vehicles can safely adapt to unexpected situations by encoding safety checks throughout their operational protocols. This innovative focus on machine learning and virtual development positions Aurora to address the complexities of driving in unpredictable environments effectively.
Future Perspectives and Global Reach
While the immediate focus for Aurora is on U.S. markets, there is optimism for the international expansion of self-driving technology as safety and operational efficacy become proven. Aurora's strategic partnerships with leading truck manufacturers and suppliers are designed to facilitate rapid scaling of their self-driving solutions, including potential deployment in other regions. There is a recognition that regulatory environments will significantly influence the pace at which self-driving technology is adopted globally. As the technology proves itself in the U.S. and demonstrates improved roadway safety, it may encourage a shift in regulatory stances, ultimately fostering quicker adoption worldwide.
Our guest in this episode is Sterling Anderson, a pioneer of self-driving vehicles. With a masters degree and a PhD from MIT, Sterling led the development and launch of the Tesla Model X, and then led the team that delivered Tesla Autopilot. In 2017 he co-founded Aurora, along with Chris Urmson, who was a founder and CTO of Google’s self-driving car project, which is now Waymo, and also Drew Bagnell, who co-founded and led Uber’s self-driving team.
Aurora is concentrating on automating long-distance trucks, and expects to be the first company to deploy fully self-driving trucks in the US when it deploys big driverless trucks (16 tons and more) between Dallas and Houston in April 2025.
Self-driving vehicles will be one of the most significant technologies of this decade, and we are delighted that one of the stars of the sector, Sterling, is joining us to share his perspectives.
