The importance of trusting and following the evidence presented by true experts in order to effectively respond to crises like the COVID-19 pandemic.
The failure of some experts to revise their positions, acknowledge mistakes, and adapt strategies has hindered progress in responding to the pandemic.
Deep dives
The Importance of a New Type of CEO
Companies today are under pressure to turn a profit and prove they're doing good in the world. Customers and employees expect corporations to protect the planet, show care about diversity, and speak up on social issues. This requires a new breed of CEO.
Lessons from the 2005 National Pandemic Plan
In 2005, a national plan was developed in the Bush White House to address a pandemic. The plan emphasized the importance of slowing down the spread of a new virus through non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as social distancing. By analyzing historical data from the 1918 flu pandemic, it was discovered that cities implementing NPIs earlier had lower mortality rates compared to those that implemented them later.
The Flawed Stanford Study and the Spread of Misinformation
A Stanford study conducted in April 2020 claimed that a much larger portion of the Santa Clara County population had been infected with COVID-19 than previously thought, suggesting a lower fatality rate. However, the study's methodology and reliance on an unreliable antibody test were heavily criticized. The lead author, a Stanford professor, faced backlash for spreading misinformation, downplaying the severity of the virus, and attacking front-line doctors.
The Humility of Experts and the Importance of Learning
Experts who admit uncertainty and embrace the constant quest for knowledge are crucial in navigating crises like the COVID-19 pandemic. However, some experts, like the Stanford professors mentioned, have been reluctant to revise their positions and acknowledge their mistakes. The failure to learn from past experiences and adapt strategies has hindered progress in effectively responding to the pandemic.
The United States had a pandemic plan. But when a pandemic came, we hesitated to follow it. The country was hobbled by argument and doubt. Much of that doubt came from experts who proposed that Covid might not be as lethal as scientists feared. Michael Lewis returns to the subject of his latest book, The Premonition, to understand why it's so hard to trust the truest signs of expertise: a willingness to follow the evidence.
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