Short-Term Treasuries the Place to Be: Jared Dillian, Daily Dirt Nap
Dec 5, 2023
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Jared Dillian, a financial analyst and author, discusses his bullish views on short-term Treasuries and his less optimistic outlook for the US economy. He also talks about his career at Lehman Brothers, the risks of inflation, and the importance of job security in finance.
Short-term Treasuries are a bullish investment option that requires belief in imminent rate cuts by the Fed.
Trusting stock market indices as a sole investment strategy can lead to missed long-term benefits and significant volatility.
Deep dives
Investing in an Index is Risky
Trusting a stock market index with your life savings is a common mistake. While index funds may offer good returns, they also come with significant volatility. This means that when the market experiences a downturn, people often panic and sell, missing out on the long-term benefits of compounding. It is important to stay invested and focus on long-term goals rather than getting swayed by short-term market fluctuations.
Beware of Trading Individual Stocks
Trading individual stocks without a clear investment strategy can lead to poor outcomes. Many people open online brokerage accounts and engage in speculative trading, ultimately losing their money. Instead, if investing in individual stocks, it is advisable to create a diversified portfolio of stable stocks and hold them for the long term.
Question the Value of a College Education
College education has become oversaturated, and not everyone benefits from a traditional four-year degree. Many individuals are entering the workforce with high levels of student debt and struggling to find suitable employment. Exploring alternative career paths, such as trades, can lead to lucrative opportunities and financial success.
Stay Informed with Curated News Sources
In today's information age, it is crucial to curate news sources carefully. Social media platforms like Twitter can be valuable for accessing diverse perspectives, but it is essential to follow high-quality and reliable sources. By curating your news feed, you can avoid misinformation and stay well-informed on relevant topics.
This podcast episode was recorded Nov. 29, 2023 and made available to premium subscribers the following day. To become a premium subscriber, sign up through our Substack or Supercast.
Jared Dillian of the Daily Dirt Nap joins the podcast to discuss his bullish views on short-term Treasuries and less optimistic outlook for the US economy. He also discusses his work as an author and views on disparate issues facing society.
Note: The podcast episode contains some mature language.
Content Highlights
The 'soft landing' scenario appears to have become the base case. Dillian doesn't quite buy that (1:37);
To be bullish on short-term Treasuries one needs to believe the Fed is going to cut rates. That is imminent (4:26);
Addressing the inflation bogeyman. The risk has maybe receded over the short term, but what about a return over the medium term? There is historical precedent for this from the last time inflation was a serious force in the US... (9:37);
Background on the guest and a broad discussion of his time at Lehman Brothers (including its downfall), working on Wall Street, career paths, education, and more...(15:48)