What's Next For Markets What’s Next For Oil With Jan Stuart
Jan 19, 2026
Jan Stuart, a Global Energy Economist at Piper Sandler, delves into the intricate world of oil markets. He argues that oil demand won't significantly decline until the next decade and could rebound by 2026, driven by sectors like petrochemicals and jet fuel. Stuart discusses geopolitical risks from Venezuela and Iran, alongside the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. He also analyzes the strategic petroleum reserve's role and reveals where investors are currently focusing their energy sector allocations, particularly towards U.S. and Canadian oil companies.
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Oil Demand Isn’t Dying Soon
- Jan Stuart says oil demand likely won't decline materially until the next decade and we must keep investing to meet ongoing needs.
- That changes valuation: top energy companies are not zero-terminal-value assets and will be recognized when macro demand turns.
Higher Floor, Gradual Upside
- Jan forecasts a higher price floor and gradual grind higher instead of price shocks, with WTI averaging low-60s by year-end and ~70 next year if growth occurs.
- That outlook is benign for macro but materially positive for energy equities when combined with demand inflection.
Small Demand Gains Add Up
- Micro-level demand checks show almost no red and multiple small positives across petrochemicals, jet fuel, and diesel.
- Those mild positives can accumulate into meaningful upside, potentially 1.5mbd demand growth versus a 1mbd norm.