Lowering the Nuclear Threshold? - Sergey Karaganov, Alexander Mercouris, and Glenn Diesen
Jan 28, 2024
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Experts Sergey Karaganov, Alexander Mercouris, and Glenn Diesen discuss altering Russia's nuclear posture, the potential consequences of the West's decline, reinstating the nuclear fuse for world peace, a supposed plan for an insurgency in Ukraine, motivations for pursuing nuclear weapons in a multipolar world, and the importance of detering biological weapons.
The diminishing effectiveness of nuclear deterrence is a concerning trend, with red lines being breached and the possibility of nuclear weapon use becoming more plausible.
The conflict in Ukraine is not just about crossing red lines, but a real war against Russia that could have catastrophic consequences for Europe and the world.
Deep dives
The Weakening of Nuclear Deterrence
The podcast discusses how nuclear deterrence no longer seems to function as effectively as it did during the Cold War. The speaker highlights the concern that red lines are being breached and the use of nuclear weapons appears more plausible than before. Examples such as Anthony Blinken's statements about US strikes and the use of American cluster ammunition in Beldorov are mentioned to support the argument. The speaker acknowledges the dangerous implications of weakening nuclear deterrence, but raises the question of whether reducing the threshold for using nuclear weapons is a solution.
The Complexity and Danger of the Ukraine Conflict
The podcast explores the conflict in Ukraine and its potential global implications. The speaker argues that the conflict goes beyond the crossing of red lines and waging proxy wars. It is portrayed as a real war against Russia, which could lead to outcomes such as Ukraine becoming an orang or a peace agreement dividing the country. The speaker emphasizes that the challenge for the West is to decide whether to accept defeat with dignity or face catastrophe. The potential consequences for Europe and the world, including the necessity of striking several European countries and a direct confrontation, are highlighted.
The Shift in the Global Power Balance
The podcast delves into the changing world order and the emergence of new rising powers. The speaker predicts that Russia, Iran, and other countries will become great powers and engage in imperialistic competition. The established Western dominance of the past 500 years is said to be undermined, leading to a potential era of wars. The speaker suggests that a viable solution lies in establishing a new institutional framework and a balanced world system, where a new balance of power can emerge.
Reinstalling the Nuclear Fuse
The podcast argues for the need to reinstall the nuclear fuse to prevent major conflicts and deter the use of biological weapons. The speaker acknowledges the necessity of cold-blooded thinking and diplomacy in this period of global transition. While expressing concerns about the costs and dangers, including the possibility of nuclear weapon use, the speaker calls on countries like Russia to take up the responsibility of reinstalling the nuclear threshold. The ultimate goal is to build a world without war and create a fairer global system.