Wisdom From The Top with Guy Raz Why Uncertainty Matters: Margaret Heffernan
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Jul 31, 2024 Margaret Heffernan, an entrepreneur and author, shares her unique insights on uncertainty in decision-making. She challenges the reliance on data for predicting the future, stressing that it's often inadequate. Instead, she advocates for fostering creativity and collaboration within organizations. Using the 'super chicken' experiment, she illustrates how competition can harm team performance. Heffernan also highlights the importance of local action and the creative energies of artists as vital tools for navigating unpredictability.
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Doctor Who Exposed Harmful X‑Rays
- Alice Stewart found a 3:1 link between prenatal x-rays and childhood cancer but faced 25 years of disbelief.
- The scientific establishment clung to threshold theory and delayed action despite confirming studies.
Theory Can Blind You To Data
- Theories can blind institutions to disconfirming data and cause fatal delays.
- Margaret stresses you must pay attention to data that contradicts dominant models.
Force The Counterargument
- Ask for counterarguments and actively try to disprove your position before committing.
- If you can't find a credible counterargument, somebody in the room isn't trying hard enough.