Below the Threshold: China's Strategy of Armed Coercion
Dec 27, 2024
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James Siebens, a Fellow at the Stimson Center and expert on China's military coercion, teams up with Jimmy Wang, a former Navy Foreign Area Officer, to unpack China's armed coercion strategies. They discuss how China uses military and paramilitary forces to assert territorial claims while delving into the implications for U.S. foreign policy. The conversation reveals the complexities of psychological warfare and lawfare in the Indo-Pacific, concluding with insights on effective deterrence strategies to counter China’s assertiveness.
China utilizes a multifaceted strategy of armed coercion that blends military and psychological tactics to assert territorial claims.
Effective deterrence against China's coercive activities requires strengthening regional partnerships and upholding international law to promote cooperative security.
Deep dives
China's Evolving Military Strategies
China's military capabilities have significantly developed over recent years, exemplified by its acquisition of aircraft carriers. This growth reflects an evolution in both the tools and tactics used by the People's Republic of China (PRC) to assert its territorial claims. As China's military strategy increasingly incorporates both military and paramilitary forces, it employs diverse operations that extend beyond traditional warfare. This multifaceted approach, including armed coercion, aims to reshape regional dynamics and assert China's influence through both intimidation and psychological means.
Coercive Tactics in the Indo-Pacific
China's coercive tactics often manifest through a blend of military and psychological strategies, particularly in contested maritime zones. The Chinese Coast Guard and maritime militia frequently engage in aggressive actions against foreign vessels, complicating the delineation between civilian and military operations. An example cited includes the use of civilian fishing fleets, which China deploys to assert its claims while remaining below the threshold of direct military confrontation. This strategy effectively pressures neighboring states to comply with China's excessive territorial claims while maintaining a veneer of non-aggression.
Deterrence and the Role of Information Warfare
Deterrence remains a key focus in countering China's coercive tactics, with a growing emphasis on information warfare and public perception. By increasing transparency and documenting aggressive Chinese encounters, nations can build international pressure against China's behavior. The Philippines, for instance, employs 'assertive transparency' to highlight Chinese actions in the South China Sea, gaining support from allies including the EU. This approach aims to shift the narrative and promote a more unified response to China's assertions, demonstrating that the international community is attentive to its aggressive maneuvers.
Policy Recommendations for U.S. Engagement
For a more effective response to China's coercive activities, U.S. policymakers are encouraged to strengthen regional partnerships while upholding international law. Increased support for maritime capabilities among allies, coupled with a comprehensive commitment to international norms, can bolster deterrence. Furthermore, framing U.S. engagements as collaborative efforts to maintain stability, rather than purely countering China, can reshape regional dynamics in favor of cooperative security. This approach emphasizes the importance of regional empowerment, enabling states to resist coercion while fostering an environment of mutual support against aggression.
Episode 121 explores China's use of armed coercion and its implications for irregular warfare with James Siebens and Jimmy Wang.
Our guests begin by examining how China employs both military and paramilitary forces to advance its territorial claims in disputed areas. They then discuss how psychological warfare, lawfare, and maritime operations intersect in the Indo-Pacific region, highlighting China's sophisticated approach to coercion below the threshold of armed conflict. Finally, our guests offer insights into effective deterrence strategies and policy recommendations for addressing China's coercive activities in the region.
James Siebens is a Fellow at the Stimson Center and author of "China's Use of Armed Coercion." His research focuses on international security, with particular emphasis on analyzing gray zone conflicts and military coercion. Through his work, he examines how nations employ armed forces to advance political objectives without engaging in sustained conflict, providing valuable insights into modern strategic competition.
Jimmy Wang is a Non-Resident Fellow at the Stimson Center and former Navy Foreign Area Officer. During his distinguished military career, he served as Northeast Asia Desk Officer for the Chief of Naval Operations and advised U.S. Pacific Fleet on Chinese naval affairs. His firsthand experience in planning and executing Military Maritime Consultative Agreement talks with China provides unique perspectives on maritime security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region.
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