Unpacking the Lie of Certainty in Marketing

What if everything marketers believe about precision is, well… probably wrong?

In this ep, Jon and Peter crack open the illusion of certainty that defines modern marketing — and expose why “the right person, the right message, the right time” might be the industry’s biggest fantasy. From LLMs to audience targeting, they’re breaking down how marketing magic is more about managing uncertainty than mastering control.

First up in From the Feed, the guys explain why it’s time to give LLMs a break. After all, they can’t be right about everything — so why are people riding so hard on a probability machine’s accuracy?

Then, Jon and Peter survey synthetic marketers to see if they think probabilistically or deterministically. Do most marketers really think success is as simple as finding the right person, with the right message, at the right time? Yes. Errr — probably.

Finally, in Mental Model and Synthetic Salon, the conversation takes a quantum leap as the guys channel Niels Bohr to explain why probabilistic thinking isn’t just for physicists — it’s the future of marketing. They explain why chasing perfect targeting and timing narrows your reach, and how embracing uncertainty can open the door to true scale.

01:40 - From the Feed

05:44 - Million Dollar Data

23:42 - The Synthetic Salon Feat. Niels Bohr