Chris Berry and Daniel Jimenez discuss the highs and lows of the lithium market in the past year, factors affecting the industry, the potential of lapidolite in brine production, hindrances to industry growth, interesting questions from kids, lithium market assessment and forecasts for 2024, EV sales and lithium supply, and their love for Austria, Chile, and Gimmütlickeit.
The volatility of lithium prices highlights the need to evaluate the true state of the market beyond spot prices.
The inflation reduction act (IRA) has made domestic mining in the US more expensive compared to other countries.
Interest rates and inflation affect the capital-intensive nature of decarbonization and supply chain buildout.
Deep dives
Themes and Questions for 2024
The podcast episode highlights three major themes from 2023. First, the volatility of lithium prices and the need to look beyond spot prices to evaluate the true state of the lithium market. Second, the impact of the inflation reduction act (IRA) on the domestic mining business in the United States, which has made it more expensive for American miners compared to other countries. Third, the influence of interest rates and inflation on the capital-intensive nature of decarbonization and supply chain buildout. These themes raise two important questions for 2024: What is a realistic cost of capital for lithium projects? And how do you price geopolitical risk, especially with the US aiming to reduce its reliance on the Chinese supply chain?
The Balanced Lithium Market and Price Expectations
The podcast episode discusses the lithium market's balance and price expectations for 2024. It emphasizes that the market should stabilize and prices may gradually increase, but there could be stock accumulations causing temporary price increases. The consensus is that a price range between low $20s and $30 per ton is reasonable for the industry, considering the higher-cost lapidolite production and the balanced market dynamics. It also suggests that the price difference between Korea, Japan, and the Western market will likely compress over time, aligning more closely.
Geopolitics and Electrification Challenges
The podcast episode delves into the geopolitical implications of building China-free supply chains and the ongoing impact of the inflation reduction act (IRA). It discusses the challenge of developing local battery production in the West, particularly highlighting the efficiency and low-cost advantage of Chinese producers in the EV market. It suggests that it may be impractical to move away from Chinese companies in battery production. Moreover, it highlights that global lithium supply and demand are not significantly affected by the IRA. It also explores the potential pushback on EV incentives in Europe and North America to protect domestic car industries and jobs. Additionally, it touches on the recent political changes in Argentina and the potential positive impact on lithium projects and supply chains in the country.
Inventory accumulation in 2022 led to lower sales in 2023
In 2022, there was a significant increase in lithium prices despite a balanced supply and consumption of lithium in electric vehicles (EVs). This increase was primarily due to stock accumulation in the supply chain. As a result, in 2023, sales of lithium were lower as inventory was depleted. This unexpected inventory cycle affected forecasts and highlights the volatility of the lithium market.
Lithium production and the importance of different regions
Argentina and Brazil are expected to become significant players in lithium production in the coming years. Africa holds large lithium resources, but the pace of development is uncertain due to infrastructure and political challenges. Canada faces permitting issues and delays, while the US lacks high-grade resources. Additionally, the growth of recycling will become increasingly important, particularly in China where a large number of electric vehicles have been sold.
My guests are Chris Berry (@cberry1 on X) and Daniel Jimenez (@D_Jimenez_Sch on X). Both gentlemen are multi episode guests that bring a wealth of expertise to any lithium conversation.
We discuss the highlights and lowlights of a dramatic year in lithium and also look to the year ahead.
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