The Herd with Colin Cowherd The Favorites - 2025 NFL Schedule with Warren Sharp - Part 1
May 21, 2025
Warren Sharp, an NFL predictive analyst and founder of Sharp Football Analysis, joins to decode the intricacies of the newly released NFL schedule. He dives into the impact of bye weeks and rest on team performance, revealing how scheduling can skew game outcomes. The conversation also touches on proposed changes to playoff seating and their betting implications. Plus, Sharp shares insights on the Dallas Cowboys' tough schedule, including the challenges of multiple Thursday night games, shedding light on how these factors affect both players and fans.
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Playoff Seeding Resistance Insight
- NFL owners resist playoff reseeding because it removes home playoff games for weaker division teams.
- New playoff structures aim to enhance TV ratings and league revenue, possibly reducing rest-related team strategy manipulation.
Changing Rest Advantage Impact
- Rest advantages in the NFL matter but are less beneficial than in the past due to mandatory rest days on bye weeks.
- Teams coming off a bye now often perform worse, covering the spread only 46% of the time since 2017 compared to 56% before 2011.
Beware Betting Teams Off Bye
- Avoid betting blindly on teams coming off bye weeks, as their performance is often worse than expected.
- Investigate rest situations carefully, as advantages vary considerably by team quality and whether they are favorites or underdogs.