The Powers That Be: Daily Matt’s Academy Awards Crystal Ball
Jan 16, 2026
Matt Belloni, a veteran Hollywood reporter known for his insights on awards seasons, joins to dissect the upcoming Oscar race after the Golden Globes. He highlights Paul Thomas Anderson's film as a Best Picture frontrunner and explains the differences between Golden Globe and Academy voters. Belloni argues that Leonardo DiCaprio may surpass Timothée Chalamet for Best Actor, while Jessie Buckley is the clear Best Actress favorite. He also touches on potential surprises and the growing fatigue surrounding awards shows.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
San Vicente Bungalows Dinner
- Matt and Peter shared a recent in-person dinner at San Vicente Bungalows and praised the food.
- They joked the podcast now delivers crucial private-club restaurant intel.
Globes Signal, Guilds Predict
- The Golden Globes winners can signal Oscar momentum but are a weaker predictor than guild awards.
- Guild awards and BAFTAs more reliably forecast Academy choices because their voters overlap with the Academy.
One Battle's Broad Appeal
- One Battle After Another has been the Best Picture frontrunner since release and fits the Academy's appetite.
- Its mix of mainstream stars and PTA prestige gives it broad cross-Academy appeal.