Rationally Speaking Podcast Rationally Speaking #75 - When Scientists Kill
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Dec 2, 2012 The podcast dives into the complex issue of scientific responsibility, sparked by the sentencing of Italian scientists for failing to predict a deadly earthquake. It discusses the challenges of risk communication during crises and the impact of misconceptions about probabilities on legal outcomes. Listeners learn how mass evacuations can paradoxically lead to greater harm and the psychological factors at play. The concept of moral luck is explored through literature, while the roots of anti-intellectualism in society and its philosophical implications are also examined.
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L'Aquila Earthquake Trial
- Six Italian scientists and one official were sentenced to six years for not warning the public about a deadly 2009 L'Aquila earthquake.
- They were accused of downplaying the risk, especially after tremors.
Bayesian Perspective on Earthquake Probability
- There's a difference between the probability of tremors given a quake and a quake given tremors.
- The latter probability is relevant, and it was low, as the Bernardinis had stated.
O.J. Simpson Case and Probability
- Alan Dershowitz argued (incorrectly) in the O.J. Simpson trial that only a tiny percentage of wife-beaters murder their wives.
- Statistician I.J. Good pointed out that the relevant probability is much higher when the wife is murdered.
