Market veteran warns against investing in AI-focused stocks without true ties to the industry, discusses market trends and the recent market rally. Talks about the challenge of separating hype from fundamentals in the AI industry. Explores valuation and market rally. Highlights the importance of using the right AI solutions for specific business needs. Discusses China's economic challenges and their impact on the global economy. Also mentions a funny story about a restaurant owner buying expensive cheese.
Beware of AI-focused companies without genuine ties to the industry exploiting the hype for profit.
Consider seasonality in market performance, but don't make major investment decisions solely based on historical trends.
Deep dives
Market rally cools off in August
After a strong rally in the stock market in the first half of the year, August saw a slowdown in performance. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 experienced a bumpy road with several quick drawdowns. However, market strategist Art Hogan believes that this is a seasonally tough period and historically, August and September have been rough months after a strong start. Despite the recent market turbulence, Hogan remains bullish and expects the market to grind higher in the coming months, with a focus on underperforming sectors that are starting to gain traction, such as energy and industrials. He also highlights the outperformance of small-cap stocks and anticipates a continued uptrend in the Russell 2000 index.
Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole speech
The recent speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium was seen positively by the market. Powell addressed the progress made towards the Fed's inflation target and highlighted the need for caution as they steer the economy towards a moderate pace of growth. While the speech did not contain any major policy announcements, it was well-received by investors as it signaled the Fed's intention to carefully navigate the path towards policy normalization. Art Hogan believes that the market's positive reaction was due to Powell's more relaxed tone and his acknowledgment of the uncertain path ahead. This, combined with calmer treasury yields and a risk-on attitude, contributed to the recent rebound in the market.
Seasonality and market performance
Art Hogan emphasizes the importance of considering seasonality in market performance. While certain months historically tend to be softer than others, it is important to use this information as a guide and not as the sole basis for investment decisions. Hogan suggests that seasonality should not lead to major changes in long-term investment strategies. He notes that recent survey data shows a bearish sentiment among investors, which could be a positive sign for a year-end rally. Hogan believes that a strong job market and continued low unemployment claims are important factors for market stability and growth.
Potential risks: China's economy and energy supply disruption
Art Hogan identifies potential risks that could impact the market outlook. First, he highlights the fragility of China's economy and the possibility of a slower growth trajectory, which could have implications for the global economy. He points out that China's consumption-driven economic shift and the challenges it faces in terms of real estate and aging demographics could be major concerns. Another risk he mentions is a significant disruption in the supply of energy, particularly if OPEC decides to curtail production while the global demand-supply dynamic remains tight. These factors could have widespread consequences and affect market performance.
There’s a lot of excitement around AI-focused stocks right now, but market veteran Art Hogan urges caution when it comes to companies that are just trying to take advantage of the hype without having true ties to the industry.
The chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss how he views the artificial intelligence investment landscape, as well as other market trends.
“If we start to see the capital markets open, and we start to have a flood of newly minted companies that are AI-specific or adjacent, I would avoid that at all costs because they likely don’t have models,” he says.