Empire Is the Cycle Over, Portfolio Psychology, & Prediction Market Alpha
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Oct 27, 2025 
Avi Felman, a seasoned participant in the crypto market, joins the discussion with insights on market psychology and institutional adoption. They tackle the question of whether the crypto cycle is over, exploring OGs selling versus new whales entering the space. Avi emphasizes the importance of recognizing cycles and market behavior, while also debating the long-term potential of platforms like Robinhood. They dive into strategies for buying market dips and highlight key crypto projects, including their own holdings and the evolving landscape of prediction markets.
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Four-Year Cycle Has Less Social Force
- The four-year halving cycle is influential but less universally understood today than in earlier cycles.
- New institutional and retail entrants dilute the cycle's self-fulfilling effect, creating different dynamics.
OG Sales Offset By New Whale Demand
- OG sellers are exiting but the market is absorbing their sales via new whales and institutions.
- This equilibrium can produce prolonged sideways trading rather than a clean top or crash.
B2B Stablecoins Are The Next Big Use Case
- Crypto has already disrupted back-office payments and cross-border value movement.
- B2B stablecoin use (Toyota paying suppliers) is a larger practical growth vector than retail remittances.