Here's Why Here's Why Some Economic Data Matters More Than Others (Anniversary)
May 30, 2025
Enda Curran, a global economy reporter at Bloomberg, shares his expertise on critical economic indicators with Stephen Carroll. They delve into the significance of data points like CPI, PCE, and GDP, discussing how to differentiate the essential from the extraneous. The conversation highlights the disconnect between inflation rates and consumer prices, explaining that disinflation doesn’t always mean lower costs. Additionally, they explore the impact of data revisions and interpretations, revealing how political narratives can skew our understanding of the economy.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
Backward vs Timely Economic Data
- Many economic indicators are backward-looking, like GDP data showing conditions from a quarter ago.
- High-frequency indicators, such as retail sales and bank lending, provide timely insights into current economic health.
Inflation Rate vs Price Levels
- Inflation rate slowing can confuse consumers who still face high prices from past inflation.
- Price levels remain elevated even as inflation slows, meaning deflation, not just lower inflation, would lower prices.
Significance of Data Revisions
- Economic data is initially incomplete and subject to revisions as more information becomes available.
- Significant data revisions, such as an 800,000 job adjustment in US employment, can materially impact economic understanding.
