Dwarkesh Podcast “China is digging out of a crisis. And America’s luck is wearing thin.” — Ken Rogoff
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Jun 12, 2025 
Ken Rogoff, a Harvard economist and former chief economist of the IMF, shares insights on the economic challenges facing China and the U.S. He discusses the stagnation in China, highlighting the risks of debt crises globally. Rogoff warns of impending inflation in the U.S. and explores how AI could reshape economic forecasts. He also examines the future of the dollar, the impact of digital currencies, and the varying financial strategies of Asia's economies, revealing the interconnectedness of global finance and the urgent need for systemic changes.
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Ken Rogoff's Bold China Warning
- Ken Rogoff gave a blunt talk in 2016 at the China Development Forum warning of a housing crisis and centralization of economic power.
- Top leaders appreciated his remarks, showing openness despite his critiques.
China's Overbuilding Problem
- China overinvested heavily in infrastructure and housing, leading to signs of economic stagnation.
- Many tier-three cities have oversized developments with little demand and a bleak future.
China's Consumption Deficit
- China's chronic low consumption and high saving rate suppress growth and cause demand problems.
- Lack of social security and healthcare curbs consumer spending and economic rebalancing.
