Lucy D’Agostino McGowan, an assistant professor of statistics at Wake Forest University and co-host of the Casual Inference Podcast, dives into the nuances of causal inference. She discusses how misunderstandings in COVID-19 data reporting can impact public trust. The conversation highlights the ethical challenges of communicating vaccine efficacy and the significance of randomized trials. Lucy also shares insights on upcoming workshops at the R conference, emphasizing the importance of community in advancing data science.
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insights INSIGHT
Precision in Interim Analyses
Reporting precise statistics like "94.5% effective" can create a false sense of certainty.
Interim analyses, like those for the Moderna vaccine, can change, so avoid over-interpreting early results.
volunteer_activism ADVICE
Communicating Uncertainty
Clearly communicate uncertainty in statistical results to maintain public trust.
Acknowledge that initial findings might change as more data becomes available.
question_answer ANECDOTE
Georgia COVID Dashboard
The Georgia COVID-19 dashboard used changing percentiles, causing misinterpretations when comparing maps over time.
People incorrectly assumed worsening conditions because the map visualization wasn't designed for temporal comparisons.
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Lucy D’Agostino McGowan, cohost of the Casual Inference Podcast and a professor at Wake Forest University, joins Daniel and Chris for a deep dive into causal inference. Referring to current events (e.g. misreporting of COVID-19 data in Georgia) as examples, they explore how we interact with, analyze, trust, and interpret data - addressing underlying assumptions, counterfactual frameworks, and unmeasured confounders (Chris’s next Halloween costume).
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Practical AI is a “Media Sponsor” of the R Conference | Government & Public Sector, where Lucy D’Agostino McGowan is giving the talk with Malcolm Barrett called “Causal Inference in R”, as well as a workshop with the same title.
This will be the first ever R Conference focused on data science work in government, defense, and the public sector.
Practical AI listeners get a special discount code valid for 20% off all ticket types, General & Academic Admission and workshops:
Practical AI 