Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart Stocks Likely To Trend Higher Into Year End? | Michael Lebowitz
Oct 25, 2025
Michael Lebowitz, a portfolio manager at RIA, shares his insights on market trends as we approach year-end. He predicts that stocks will likely drift higher, provided no surprises shake the market. They dive into inflation dynamics, the housing market's dual pressures, and the implications of recent CPI data. Michael also critiques current mortgage forecasts and discusses energy investments. Additionally, he explores the gambling scandal's impact on speculation, illustrating the connection between market behavior and societal risks.
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Shelter Is The Key Driver Of CPI Path
- Recent CPI showed cooling versus expectations but remains around 3% year-over-year, largely driven by shelter.
- Shelter is lagged in CPI, so disinflation there can keep headline CPI declining for many months.
New-Lease Rent Data Shows Faster Disinflation
- The Cleveland Fed index of new rents (new lease data) has plunged, indicating faster rent disinflation than headline CPI shows.
- Because CPI shelter uses many old leases, this new-lease decline will take long to flow into CPI fully.
Housing May Face Net Supply Pressure
- Housing faces large pent-up supply from owners unwilling to trade low mortgage rates for current high rates, while demand is also constrained by affordability.
- Michael's gut: supply may outsize demand, pressuring prices further, especially if labor market weakens.