My Terrible Predictions for 2026

It’s that time of year again.

What’s going to happen? What does the future hold?

We all want to know.

Knowing what’s going to happen makes you feel better.

NostreDominic is here to tell you.

Here are 19 predictions for 2026

1. Gold Breaks $5,000

Gold doesn’t quite have the year it had in 2025, but it has a good year nonetheless and rises above $5,000/oz

On which note: Charlie Morris’s monthly gold report, Atlas Pulse is, in my view, the best gold newsletter out there. Get your copy here. No pay nada.

2. S&P 500 Frustration

The S&P500 will spend much of 2026 in a frustrating range trade with a couple of nasty pullbacks. We see an interim peak in April-May, followed by a weak summer, but a strong final quarter means we end the year with a 10-15% gain.

The problem of disproportionately few stocks (41 is it?) being responsible for most of the gains remains.

3. Inflation Finds New Forms

Inflation doesn’t die, it mutates. Headline inflation looks reasonably controlled (by recent standards), enabling leaders to declare that it is controlled or some other BS. Despite this “victory”, inflation finds other ways to rob you.

4. Bitcoin Hits $150,000

Bitcoin has a good year. With escalating geo-political conflict, as well as capital controls and tax grabs, more and more people wake up to the value of permissionless, apolitical currency. Falling trust in fiat - never mind government institutions - becomes more culturally entrenched. Bitcoin goes to $150,000.

5. Starmer Survives (Just)

Prime Minister Keir Starmer manages another year. His position gets even more precarious after a bad showing in the May local elections, but it is still only 2026 and the next General Election is not till 2029. Too early to oust him just yet.

6. Government Spending: The Unstoppable Force

Government spending keeps on increasing. Even if they wanted to, they just can’t stop it.

Western Europe continues, therefore, its great march on the road to serfdom

7. But No Sovereign Debt Crisis

Despite the mathematics verging on the impossible, government debt continues to outpace GDP (it has grown at three times the pace this century) but the inevitable sovereign debt crisis that is coming to the UK, Western Europe and perhaps even the US, is somehow averted.

By saying it won’t happen, it will happen. I know it.

8. British Stocks Shine Despite Economic Stagnation

Britain’s economy continues to stagnate, but British stocks do well. Rather like Japan circa 2015, the valuations are so cheap that mergers and acquisitions are inevitable. Foreign money takes advantage.

9. Oil Recovers

Oil, currently lagging metals, begins to turn around. Brent crude stays above $55 and flirts with $80 a barrel.

10. UK Energy Costs Stay Elevated

Energy costs in the UK remain high because Millibrain. Limited growth is the result.

If you live in a Third World Country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound is going to be further devalued. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.

11. Critical Minerals Boom

I would venture that the decision to overthrow Venezuelan President Maduro was as much about critical minerals - so-called strategic metals et al - and China’s chokehold on them, as it was oil and gas, narco-terrorism, Russian drones and liberating the poor suffering people.

To the US’s credit it is trying to put the China chokehold problem right. The UK and Europe are hopeless. But this process, especially re-shoring industry, is highly inflationary, hence my comment about inflation finding new forms.

It is a good year to be invested in both industrial and critical minerals, and the related stocks end the year considerably higher than when they began.

This is something I’ll be looking at a lot next year

12. Emerging Markets Rally

Emerging markets have a good year. Commodities, innit.

13. The Pound Weakens A Bit

The pound gradually weakens against the US dollar. High is $1.37, low is $1.25. Or thereabouts.

14. Silver. Triple Digits.

Silver goes above $100. There I’ve said it. Now watch it crash.

15. AI-Powered Government Overreach

A highly worrying development. Government Blob bodies, such as Ofcom and HMRC in the UK (though this problem is global), make increasing use of AI to make their processes more efficient. This enables them in a really bad way.

This is already happening. In 2026 people start to wake up to the fact.

I like AI. But it enables Big Bureaucracy. Beware.

16. UK Property: More Stagnation

The stagnation, particularly at the upper end of the market, continues. And why wouldn’t it? Moving is too expensive.

While nominal prices might be flat or slightly up, real prices are down, liquidity is poor, transactions fall.

17. Rents Stay Elevated

Because so many now prefer to rent so they don’t have to pay moving taxes, and because the game is now over for amateur landlords, who continue to exit the market due to the increased cost of regulations, rents stay elevated.

18. Official Reassurance = The Biggest Mistake

The biggest mistake of 2026, as with every year, will be trusting official reassurance. Governments and central banks remain behind the curve. Markets lead, policymakers follow. The crisis won’t come from what they warn us about, but from something they’ve missed.

19. Your Bruce-y Bonus Sports Prediction

Arsenal win the League. West Ham, Burnley and Wolves all get relegated.

Have a wonderful 2026. Let’s hope as with last year I’m wrong about everything and we make a potload of dosh.

Until next time

Dominic

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