Eric Reguly, The Globe's European Bureau Chief, shares his insights from the frontlines of the Israel-Lebanon conflict. He discusses the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, revealing the intricate motivations driving this agreement, including U.S. and French involvement. Reguly highlights Hezbollah's military challenges and the dire humanitarian crisis in Lebanon, as well as the significant impact of the ongoing war in Gaza. He also addresses the complexities of achieving a lasting peace and the potential ripple effects on regional stability.
The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, brokered by the U.S. and France, reflects deep-seated mistrust still present in the region.
The dire humanitarian situation in Lebanon, exacerbated by the recent conflict, underlines the urgent need for effective ceasefire enforcement and aid.
Deep dives
Ceasefire Dynamics and Terms
A ceasefire deal has been established between Israel and Hezbollah, requiring both sides to retreat from the southern Lebanon area near the Latani River within 60 days. This agreement resembles UN Resolution 1701 from 2006, which had previously aimed to create peace after a lengthy conflict; however, it ultimately failed as Hezbollah gained control over the region. The role of the Lebanese army and the United Nations peacekeeping force, UNIFIL, will be crucial in monitoring the ceasefire, but historical weaknesses of the Lebanese military raise concerns about effectiveness. Although this ceasefire is a temporary solution, the conditions remain fragile, with immediate reports of violations from both parties revealing deep-seated mistrust and ongoing tension between them.
Geopolitical Influences on the Ceasefire
The ceasefire agreement was significantly influenced by external powers, particularly the United States and France, which played pivotal roles in mediating the terms. Observers suggest that U.S. President Joe Biden sought a diplomatic win in the Middle East to bolster his administration's image amidst ongoing strife elsewhere. Historically, the Lebanese influence from France complicates the dynamics, as many Lebanese are bilingual in French and Arabic, retaining ties to their former colonial power. This diplomatic push was also urgent due to the prospect of wider conflict erupting in the region, particularly as tensions escalate in Gaza.
Impact on Lebanon's Civilian Population
The war's toll on the Lebanese populace has been severe, with approximately 1.2 million people internally displaced due to violence and destruction in southern Lebanon. The infrastructure is in ruins, with many civilians sleeping in cars and parks, and schools have been closed as families try to cope with the chaos. The Lebanese government, already in a state of financial crisis, lacks the resources to initiate reconstruction, raising concerns about the sources of future aid and rebuilding efforts. The situation remains dire for both Lebanese civilians and those displaced along the Israeli border, emphasizing the urgent need for effective ceasefire enforcement and humanitarian support.
This week, Israel and Hezbollah – the Iran-backed armed group in Lebanon – reached a ceasefire deal. A day later, both accused the other of violating the peace.
But the fragile agreement, brokered by the U.S. and France, appears to be holding for now. And while Israel and Hezbollah have agreed to halt their fighting, the war Israel is fighting in Gaza with Hamas continues.
Eric Reguly, the Globe’s European Bureau Chief, has reported from Lebanon during the war. He joins the show to explain what led to this deal, what could help it succeed, and if this could create momentum for a ceasefire in Gaza.