Tobias Carlisle: Sun Tzu & Warren Buffett

Nov 12, 2025

Tobias Carlisle, an author and investor known for his value-oriented research, returns to delve into his latest book, which connects Sun Tzu's strategies with Warren Buffett's investment techniques. He examines Buffett's modern deals, arguing Apple's investment stands out for its low risk and high potential. Carlisle discusses the importance of long-term patience in investing, the strategic analysis behind Buffett's major acquisitions like General Re and BNSF, and how integrity plays a critical role in deal-making.

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INSIGHT

Survival Trumps Short-Term Glory

Investing is a game with a risk of ruin and survival is the primary determinant of long-term success.
Buffett's longevity comes from avoiding ruin and surviving bad periods to reach the long run.

INSIGHT

Apple: Few Downsides, Many Ways To Win

Carlisle calls Buffett's Apple position possibly the greatest investment ever because downside was tiny and multiple upside paths existed.
Buffett bought huge scale cheaply and benefited from buybacks, product strength, and tailwinds like COVID stimulus.

INSIGHT

Victory Without Conflict

Victory without conflict is Sun Tzu's central idea applied to investing: win efficiently and avoid unnecessary battles.
You must know how you'll win before entering an investment or else you surrender advantage to the market.

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This episode is with a returning guest to the podcast - Tobias Carlisle.

We talk about his new book, “Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett, Sun Tzu, and the Ancient Art of Risk Taking”

The book takes a close look at Sun Tzu’s philosophy and then applies it to the deal making of Warren Buffett. The book focuses on Warren Buffett’s deals since Coke. I like this because the focus of Buffett books is often prior to this, but this focuses on “recent” deals.

Links

* Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett, Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk-Taking https://www.amazon.com/Soldier-Fortune-Buffett-Ancient-Risk-Taking-ebook/dp/B0FT516BDW

* My last conversation with Tobias, with links to the other episodes as well:

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