Making Sense with Sam Harris - Subscriber Content

#402 - The Geopolitics of Trump 2.0

Mar 1, 2025

Niall Ferguson, a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and author of 16 influential books, joins the discussion about the current geopolitical landscape. They dive into Trump's handling of Ukraine and the shifting dynamics between Europe and the U.S. Ferguson critiques American foreign policy under both Trump and Biden, highlighting the dilemmas of rising powers like China. The conversation touches on free speech issues in the UK, economic concerns tied to national debt, and the contrasting strategies for the Middle East, all against a backdrop of political uncertainty.

01:30:29

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Episode guests

Niall Ferguson

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Quick takeaways

Trump's second term mirrors the energetic beginnings of past presidencies, focusing on reducing federal government size post-COVID-19 rather than expansion.

The unpredictability of Trump's foreign policy, particularly regarding Ukraine, is creating a vacuum of confidence among European allies, prompting reevaluation of their defense roles.

Concerns over U.S. national debt are overshadowing defense priorities, raising alarms about military readiness and the potential decline of American power.

Deep dives

Comparative Presidential Activity

The recent start of Trump's second term is likened to the energetic beginnings of Franklin Roosevelt's presidency in 1933, characterized by numerous executive orders. However, while Roosevelt aimed to expand the federal government during the Great Depression, Trump's focus appears to be reducing its size in the aftermath of COVID-19. This sets a contrasting framework for understanding current political dynamics, suggesting that both presidencies display a frenetic pace of activity, though with opposing goals. Observers now question whether Trump can match or exceed Roosevelt's historic number of executive actions.

Intro

3min

Shifts in U.S. Foreign Policy and Global Security

9min

Shifting Sands of U.S. Foreign Policy

32min

Navigating the Erosion of American Competence

19min

The Censorship Debate and Rising Populism

12min

Trump vs. Biden: Middle East Strategies

7min

Concerns Over National Debt and Economic Stability

2min

Political Uncertainty and Future Scenarios

6min

Sam Harris speaks with Niall Ferguson about the current geopolitical situation. They discuss how Trump is handling the war in Ukraine, Europe’s changing relationship to the U.S., security concerns around Trump’s appointees, the economic impacts of Trump’s policies, how China views political turmoil in the U.S., whether democracy can withstand Trump 2.0, Elon Musk and X, free speech in the United Kingdom, Trump’s plan for Gaza, and other topics.

Sir Niall Ferguson, MA, DPhil, FRSE, is the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, and a senior faculty fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard. He is the author of 16 books, including The Pity of War, The House of Rothschild, and Kissinger: 1923-1968: The Idealist, which won the Council on Foreign Relations’ Arthur Ross Prize. He is a columnist with The Free Press and The Times. He is also the founder and managing director of Greenmantle, a New York-based advisory firm, a co-founder of the Latin American fintech company Ualá, and a co-founding trustee of the new University of Austin.

Website: niallferguson.com

X: @nfergus

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