Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart Has The Market Moved Too Far Too Fast? | Michael Lebowitz
47 snips
Oct 11, 2025 Michael Lebowitz, a portfolio manager and market analyst at Real Investment Advice, dives into the rapid ascent of stock prices. He explores whether this surge is sustainable or if a pullback is imminent. Discussion topics include the risk of AI bubbles reminiscent of the '90s, the impact of geopolitical stability on markets, and insights on credit spreads and valuation discipline in private equity. He also shares strategies for managing investments during market euphoria and stresses the importance of risk management over tax considerations.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Steady S&P Uptrend Masks Divergence
- The S&P has risen steadily since May with low volatility, showing bulls in control but limited momentum in MACD and RSI.
- A 4–6% quick drop and weak buy-the-dip recovery would signal a meaningful change in trend and risk management steps.
Speculative Fever Across Thematic Portfolios
- Since August 1st thematic and speculative portfolios (AI, crypto, small/mid) surged dramatically in weeks, showing concentrated beta-driven gains.
- Rapid, broad speculative rallies create fragility where one stumble can cascade across interdependent firms.
Take Profits On Fast, Large Gains
- If you hold outsized gains in speculative names, take profits and rebalance rather than assuming the rally lasts indefinitely.
- Use realized gains to reduce concentration risk and preserve capital before sentiment shifts.