Simon Rabinovich, U.S. economics editor for The Economist, shares insights on the surprising resilience of the American housing market amid rising interest rates. He explores how unique aspects of the mortgage market defy expectations of falling prices, complicating homeownership for many. Additionally, Anne Rowe honors Isabel Crook, a Canadian anthropologist who embraced China's communist changes, reflecting on her unique journey and the cultural shifts she witnessed. The conversation also touches on the complexities of elective egg freezing and its real-life success rates for women.
Despite rising mortgage rates, the US housing market continues to thrive due to a shortage of available housing inventory caused by homeowners locking in low mortgage rates.
A study on elective egg freezing shows that the success rate varies by age and the number of eggs stored, providing a means to slow down the decline in fertility as women age.
Deep dives
US Housing Market Resilience
Despite rising mortgage rates, the US housing market continues to thrive with house prices reaching record highs. The usual relationship between interest rates and house prices, where an increase in rates leads to a decrease in prices, is not holding true this time. The reason for this anomaly is the freeze in the housing market due to many homeowners locking in low mortgage rates, causing a shortage of available housing inventory. While this shortage affects demand, it is balanced by a strong new home market and increased spending on remodeling, which has actually had positive macroeconomic consequences.
Success Rates of Egg Freezing
A study on elective egg freezing revealed that 39% of women were able to have at least one baby using their frozen eggs over a 15-year period. The success rate varies by age and the number of eggs stored. Women who froze their eggs before the age of 38 had a 51% chance of a live birth, which increased to 70% if they stored at least 20 eggs. However, for women who froze their eggs at 41 or older, the success rate was only 23%, but it increased to 33% if they had at least 10 eggs. While egg freezing does not guarantee prolonged fertility or certainty in starting a family, it provides a means to slow down the decline in fertility as women age.
Isabelle Crook: The Anthropologist and Communist Supporter
Isabelle Crook, a Canadian anthropologist, was an ardent supporter of communism and witnessed the founding of the Chinese Communist Party. She dedicated her life to studying and supporting the party, even after experiencing the hardships of the Cultural Revolution. Her devotion to the cause influenced her work as an anthropologist in China, where she fully immersed herself in the culture and lived among the people. Despite some reservations about the shift towards capitalism in China, she believed that the country had built its foundations based on the needs of its people and justified the changes over time. Isabelle Crook passed away at the age of 107.
The highest interest rates in years should lead to a fall in house prices. But peculiarities of America’s mortgage market are driving them up. Egg-freezing was supposed to give women more control over childbearing; we look at scant data showing how successful it really is (10:57). And remembering Isabel Crook, an anthropologist who embraced China’s communist transformation, warts and all (15:44).
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