Dave Ramsey, Crypto Currency, Trusting Past Performance and More
Aug 28, 2024
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Dave Ramsey, a renowned financial expert known for his advice on personal finance and debt reduction, tackles some hot topics in this discussion. He emphasizes the importance of trusting historical performance rather than recent returns when investing. The conversation includes practical tips for retirement planning and how to teach young investors about the benefits of starting early. Ramsey also shares his skepticism about cryptocurrencies, echoing Warren Buffett's concerns about their viability as an investment.
Investors often over-rely on recent performance to make investment choices, risking poor long-term outcomes as seen with ARK and AVUV funds.
Starting to invest early is crucial for accumulating wealth, as early savers can benefit greatly from compound growth over time.
Deep dives
The Impact of Recent Performance on Investment Decisions
Investors often let recent performance heavily influence their decision-making process, demonstrating emotional challenges tied to market fluctuations. For instance, many new investors may be tempted to choose funds with strong short-term returns, like the ARK fund, over newer options like the Avantis Small Cap Value Fund that lack a track record. This tendency can lead to regrettable investment choices, especially when the initially high-performing fund eventually declines significantly. The podcast illustrates this dilemma by comparing the outcomes of these two funds over a specific timeframe, showcasing the risks of making decisions based solely on recent performance history.
The Unpredictability of Future Returns
It is emphasized that predicting future investment returns based on past performance is fraught with uncertainty, as exemplified by the varying returns of different funds over time. For instance, although Kathy Wood projected significant future returns for her fund, ARKK, when it was already down substantially, her confidence was met with skepticism due to past downturns. Investors must grapple with the reality that past performance does not guarantee future results, as shown through the analysis of various asset classes over decades, which indicate substantial performance variability. The discussion encourages a more cautious and informed approach to evaluating potential investment opportunities.
The Case for Diversification and Long-Term Planning
Diversifying investment portfolios across various asset classes is presented as a key strategy for achieving better long-term returns while managing risk. Historical data shows that equity asset classes generally outperform bonds over the long term, but specific periods may yield disappointing results for stocks. The podcast stresses the importance of understanding that diversification can help mitigate the risk associated with relying solely on any single investment, as evidenced by different historical performance scenarios. By providing insights into both favorable and unfavorable outcomes, investors can make more informed, strategic decisions about their portfolios.
Encouraging Early Savings in Young Investors
The significance of early savings is highlighted, emphasizing the compounded benefits of starting to invest at a younger age. An illustrative example from the podcast details a model where two savers contribute different amounts at varying times, revealing how starting early can lead to substantially greater wealth. The impact of small changes in savings rates and returns over time further reinforces the idea that young investors should prioritize saving early, as it can significantly influence their financial futures. Educational efforts aimed at young people play a crucial role in fostering a saving mentality that can lead to long-term financial stability.
Paul starts with a general discussion of the decision to trust recent returns or make investment based on longer term returns. He uses AVUV and ARKK as two investments you could have made in September 2019. In the discussion he references a video where arkk creator and fund manager predicts future arkk returns.
Q: #1: Why should future results look like the past? 16:15
Q: #2 We are in mid 50s and we think we have more money than we will need in retirement. Is there a rule of thumb for how much money one needs? Should one just figure out their cost of living and back into the amount needed for retirement? 26:50
Q#3 Have you done a comparison of your returns compared to Dave Ramsey’s recommended portfolios? 32:55
Q #4 How can we teach young investors about the advantage of starting investing ASAP? See the following set of PowerPoints for the Orange County AAII. 40:02
Q #5 What is your take on Crypto Currency? Here is what people I trust say about CC.
Warren Buffett: “In terms of cryptocurrencies, generally, I can say with almost certainty that they will come to a bad ending,” Buffett said in 2018. And his stance hasn’t wavered since. According to Benzinga, Buffett believes that cryptocurrencies aren’t a viable or valuable investment. “Now if you told me you own all of the Bitcoin in the world and you offered it to me for $25, I wouldn’t take it because what would I do with it? I’d have to sell it back to you one way or another. It isn’t going to do anything,” Buffett said at the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting in 2022.
Ben Carlson: I have no idea what will happen with bitcoin or cryptocurrencies in general in the years ahead. Anyone who thinks they know with certainty how this all plays out is delusional. But I can say that my stance on crypto has evolved over the years to the point where I think the best-case scenario just might be the new digital gold.
Larry Swedroe Swedroe took a more skeptical view of Bitcoin. He pointed out that Bitcoin’s value proposition is questionable. Bitcoin has a theoretical limited supply, capped at 21 million coins. However, the existence of an unlimited number of substitute cryptocurrencies means Bitcoin faces a daunting challenge. An asset with an unlimited supply typically sees its value approach zero. Swedroe categorized Bitcoin as a Ponzi scheme, though he acknowledged that it could achieve high trading values based on what people are willing to pay.
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