Bloomberg Surveillance
Where the Equity Rally Goes in 2025
Jan 3, 2025
Neil Dutta, head of US Economic Research at Renaissance Macro Research, discusses rising bond yields and the likelihood of a recession in 2025. Priya Misra of JP Morgan Asset Management offers insights on the potential for a US soft landing and peak rates in fixed income markets. Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s Chief US Equity Strategist, analyzes the resilience of the equity market, contemplating where traders might see volatility in the upcoming year. Together, they navigate the complexities of the economic outlook amid changing financial landscapes.
41:05
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Quick takeaways
- The Federal Reserve's recent policy shifts reflect its vigilance over the economy, impacting bond yields and raising recession concerns.
- The rising strength of the dollar poses challenges for U.S. exports and corporate earnings, particularly for global technology firms.
Deep dives
Insights into the Fed's Policy Changes
The recent changes in the Federal Reserve’s policies highlight its responsiveness to economic data and market conditions. A significant shift occurred during the last Fed meeting, where they preemptively revised policy forecasts, which raised concerns among economists about its implications for the financial markets. The discussion points to how the market has reacted, specifically with rising yields and a strong dollar, potentially signaling a slowdown in economic activity. Analysts agreed that this tightening of financial conditions may not align with the expected growth trends, suggesting caution in future economic forecasts.
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