Behind the Money How oil traders called the Middle East war
8 snips
Jul 2, 2025 
Malcolm Moore, the Financial Times’ energy editor, dives into the intriguing world of oil trading amidst Middle Eastern conflicts. He reveals how traders defied expectations by predicting a short-lived crisis when Iran attacked a U.S. airbase. The discussion explores how geopolitical tensions, instead of spiking oil prices, led to market confidence. Moore also highlights the role of technology and social media in shaping traders' strategies, illustrating a shift in trader psychology in the face of conflict.
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Oil Traders Anticipate Conflict Outcome
- Typically, oil prices spike when conflict arises in the Middle East due to supply concerns.
- This time, oil traders anticipated a short-lived conflict and the market did not spike as usual.
Strait of Hormuz's Crucial Role
- The Strait of Hormuz is a critical choke point where a quarter of the world's oil passes.
- Oil traders fear Iran might disrupt this route, which would severely impact global oil supply.
Oil Surplus Calms Traders
- The global oil market currently has a surplus due to increased output from OPEC and the US.
- This surplus makes traders less concerned about supply disruptions during conflict.