How to be a contrarian (The Art of Contrary Thinking by Humphrey Bancroft Neill)

In this book, Humphrey B. Neill argues that economic booms and busts are often exacerbated by the pressure of mass opinion. He provides detailed accounts of historical events such as the Mississippi Bubble, Holland's Tulipmania, and the New York stock market crash of 1929 to illustrate the dangers of following the crowd. Neill advocates for contrarian thinking, emphasizing the importance of independent analysis and the ability to fight one's own psychological biases. He suggests that a contrarian approach involves thorough analysis, considering longer-term aspects, secondary effects, and alternative explanations to anticipate future changes rather than making specific forecasts.