Construction Is Booming! Why Aren’t Rents Coming Down Faster?
Jan 6, 2025
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Drew Hamrick, General Counsel and Senior VP of Government Affairs for the Apartment Association of Metro Denver, dives into Denver’s booming construction scene. He explains why rents aren’t dropping despite new apartment buildings and discusses the influence of rent-setting algorithms on pricing. The conversation also touches on how recent affordable housing ordinances have drastically affected permit applications for new developments. Drew shares insights on potential future rent increases and the evolving dynamics between landlords and tenants.
Despite a record construction of new apartment units in Denver, average rents have only seen minor fluctuations due to supply surpassing demand.
The rise of rent-setting algorithms has drawn scrutiny for potentially causing higher overall rents and collusion among landlords in Denver's rental market.
Deep dives
Current Trends in Denver Rent
Recent data indicates that average rents for single-bedroom apartments in Denver are experiencing only minor fluctuations, with a reported decrease of approximately $16 per month. Over the last two years, rent growth has been exceptionally flat, with a cumulative increase of only about 1.2% compared to the previous year. This stagnation comes as a surprise to many, given the narrative of skyrocketing rents, but it aligns with the significant increase in apartment units hitting the market. The historic level of construction in Denver, with roughly 30,000 new units added over two years, is primarily responsible for keeping rents steady or even contributing to declines.
The Impact of New Construction on Rent Dynamics
The relationship between supply and demand in the rental market is crucial, as the influx of new apartment units has altered the dynamics of rental pricing. Historically, when supply exceeds demand, rents typically drop; this scenario is currently unfolding in Denver due to extensive apartment construction. However, the time lag between project development and occupancy can take years, creating challenges when demand surges unexpectedly. As a result, while the immediate impact of new units has stabilized rents, long-term projections indicate a potential increase in rent as new construction slows in response to market conditions.
Regulatory Challenges and Development Costs
Regulations such as zoning laws significantly impact housing production, making it difficult to adapt to market needs. Much of Denver is zoned for single-family homes only, limiting the growth of multifamily housing options that could alleviate rental pressures. Additionally, new ordinances aimed at creating affordable housing can unintentionally create economic burdens, discouraging developers from pursuing new projects. As development slows, it leads to a tightened housing supply, which could result in increased rents over time, reflecting the balance between regulatory pressures and housing market demands.
The Role of Rent-Setting Algorithms in Pricing
Rent-setting algorithms, such as those provided by RealPage, are becoming increasingly popular among landlords as they claim to optimize rental pricing. However, recent scrutiny from government agencies suggests these algorithms could contribute to higher overall rents across markets, with Denver renters reportedly paying an average of $136 more monthly due to these pricing models. Critics argue these algorithms may lead to collusion among landlords, as they share data and historical prices, potentially influencing market rates. Despite the controversies, landlords assert that using such algorithms helps manage vacancies more effectively, allowing for quicker rentals and minimizing lost income from unoccupied units.
If it seems like Denver’s skyline has been full of cranes lately, it’s not just you. The city has seen record construction of new apartment buildings over the past two years. But according to data from CoStar and the Apartment Association of Metro Denver, the average rent is either stagnant or falling slightly by $16 per month. So today we’re trying to understand what’s happening in the local rental market by talking to the landlords directly: Drew Hamrick is the general council and senior VP of government affairs for the AAMD, which means he’s the chief advocate for local landlords at the state capitol. We’re talking about why landlords aren’t dropping rents faster, the recent White House report on rent-setting algorithms, and why he thinks rents could skyrocket in the next couple years.
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