The Bunker
Bunker USA: Swing both ways - The states that will decide the 2024 election
Sep 23, 2023
Kyle Kondik, author of 'The Bellwether: Why Ohio Picks the president', discusses the changing landscape of bellwether states in the upcoming 2024 election. Both Trump and Biden will need to win over voters with unfavorable views, who will likely decide the next election. It is important for both candidates to tell a story that defines their battle ground. The podcast sheds light on the dynamics of US elections and the profile of middle voters, emphasizing the importance of socially conservative and economically liberal/moderate voters that were drawn to Trump.
30:52
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Quick takeaways
- Bellwether states for predicting presidential elections are shifting due to changing demographics and voting patterns.
- Cross-pressured voters with negative views of both major party candidates hold the power to decide the next election.
Deep dives
The concept of Bellwether states
Bellwether states are defined as states that not only vote for the winning presidential candidate often or always but also closely reflect the national popular vote. While historically states like Ohio and Michigan were considered Bellwether states, this trend has shifted in recent years. Ohio lost its Bellwether status after the 2016 election, and currently, there isn't a clear Bellwether state for the upcoming election. The demographics and voting patterns have been changing, reflecting the competitive and unpredictable nature of recent elections.
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