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Delicate Stock Rally Needs Catalyst
- The current stock rally is "delicate," relying heavily on short-dated options buying rather than robust conviction.
- A new catalyst like jobs data or strong mega-cap earnings is needed to sustain the momentum.
Trade War Impact Has Lag Effect
- Equity markets are looking past immediate trade war damage, hoping trade deals will delay further tariffs.
- The real economic impact will emerge with a lag, affecting markets weeks later.
Market Likely Range Bound
- The market is likely range bound between roughly 5250 and 5740 due to technical resistance at the 200-day moving average.
- A catalyst is needed to break above this level and push the market higher.