Daniel Bessner, a historian and podcaster renowned for his insights on American foreign policy, joins the discussion to dissect the implications of a potential second Trump term. They explore how Trump's 'America First' approach might reshape relationships with Ukraine and China, assess his rapport with the deep state, and analyze generational divides regarding U.S. imperialism. The conversation also examines the changing dynamics in the Middle East, the ongoing U.S.-China tensions, and whether peace in Ukraine is plausible, all while reflecting on shifting paradigms in foreign policy.
The podcast discusses the generational shift in foreign policy perspectives, with younger officials growing skeptical of traditional neoconservative approaches.
Trump's administration reflects a mix of continuity and chaos in U.S. foreign policy, maintaining military primacy while introducing unpredictable actions.
The evolving U.S. stance on the Middle East signifies a shift towards disengagement, emphasizing collaboration rather than intervention in achieving regional stability.
Deep dives
The End of History Ideology and Foreign Policy
The concept of the 'end of history' ideology influences current foreign policy perspectives and has a firm hold on those still in power. While older generations in government may cling to this ideology, younger generations are increasingly skeptical of traditional neoconservative and hawkish viewpoints. This generational shift signifies a potential change in how future foreign policy is shaped, as new officials emerge who are less inclined to follow a hegemonic approach or confrontational posture. The ideological grip on power appears to be weakening as experiences related to the War on Terror shape a more nuanced understanding of global relations.
Assessing Trump's Foreign Policy Legacy
Trump's administration is characterized by a blend of continuity and erraticism within American foreign policy. The longstanding focus on military and economic primacy remains intact, although his approach differed slightly through measures like the trade war with China and impulsive actions such as the assassination of Qasem Soleimani. Despite the perceived chaos surrounding Trump, his policies produced little significant change compared to previous administrations. The impact of his administration on coalition-building and party dynamics is likely to persist, as Trumpism presents an unstable alignment of varying agendas and interests.
The Complexity of American State Power
Navigating the intricacies of the American political state presents challenges for any president, including Trump, as the U.S. system is fragmented into various power centers. The ability to effectuate change within the structure of the government requires a nuanced understanding of these complexities, which Trump lacks. Regimes in other countries, such as Nazi Germany under Hitler, had the potential to manipulate their political machinery more effectively due to their simpler bureaucratic systems. In contrast, the current American state operates within a landscape that is difficult to direct or control, complicating the prospects for pivotal shifts in policy or governance.
Bipolarity versus Multipolarity in Global Politics
As the geopolitical landscape shifts, the emergence of bipolar or multipolar dynamics is increasingly contentious among observers of international relations. While the U.S. is still seen as a predominant force, countries like China and Russia pursue regional hegemony without aspirations for total global dominance. This nuanced view of powers suggests that while regional influence may grow for these countries, they do not inherently possess the capacity to unite other states under their banners. Instead, a condition of poly-alignment emerges wherein countries seek to navigate relationships with multiple powers to safeguard their interests, contributing to a complex and fragmented global order.
The Uncertain Future of U.S. Engagement in the Middle East
The United States' approach toward the Middle East is evolving toward disengagement, allowing Israel greater autonomy within regional dynamics post-October 7 events. While Iran is viewed as weakened, it's unlikely that the U.S. will engage in another regime change war, since the costs of such an endeavor outweigh the potential benefits. Instead, efforts to pressure Iran economically and militarily may persist without overt military confrontation. A broader realization among U.S. strategic planners appears to be that a collaborative security arrangement with allies may be more effective than direct intervention in quelling regional tensions.
Historian and podcaster Daniel Bessner joins Alex Hochuli and contributing editor Lee Jones to ask how this era of rot and decay will proceed under Trump II, from Ukraine to China and beyond. We discuss:
Will we see "America First transactionalism"?
Does Trump have a capable cadre to bend the state to his will?
What will Trump’s relationship be to the deep state?
How important are generational splits in attitudes to the US empire?
Will there be a peace deal in Ukraine? Where does that leave 'Atlanticism'?
