Intelligence Squared

The Intelligence Squared Economic Outlook, with Paul Johnson, Part One

Oct 3, 2024

Paul Johnson, an influential economist and Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, joins BBC News presenter Jonny Dymond for a deep dive into Britain’s economic outlook post-election. They discuss the challenges of high taxes paired with underfunded public services, the impact of external shocks like Brexit, and the need for effective tax reform. Johnson assesses the potential of the new Labour administration to stimulate growth, while tackling pressing issues like child poverty and the housing crisis amidst rising public debt.

45:29

Episode guests

Paul Johnson

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Episode notes

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Quick takeaways

The UK economy shows modest growth signs, but past economic shocks like Brexit still pose risks to future stability.

Public finances are strained by high taxation and underfunding of services, necessitating transparent discussions about tax increases and fiscal responsibility.

Deep dives

The Current State of the British Economy

The British economy shows signs of modest growth, with recent quarters reflecting increases of around 0.5% to 0.6%, translating into an annual growth rate of approximately 2%. However, this positive trend comes after a lengthy period of stagnation, particularly since the financial crisis of 2007-2008, during which wages saw minimal growth and productivity faltered. Inflation rates have dropped, allowing real wages to rise for the first time in years, yet the looming effects of past economic shocks, such as Brexit and the energy crisis, continue to weigh heavily on future growth projections. Overall, while the immediate outlook appears somewhat optimistic, uncertainty persists, especially regarding the sustainability of these growth rates moving into the latter half of the year.

Intro

5min

Britain's Economic Landscape: Growth Amidst a History of Stagnation

2min

Analyzing the Dilemma of High Taxes and Underfunded Public Services

4min

Navigating Public Finance Challenges

8min

Navigating Economic Uncertainty and Budget Implications

4min

Navigating Tax Reform Challenges

13min

Shifting Public Finances: Trends and Challenges

7min

Paul Johnson is the economist who has set the terms of so much political debate over the past few decades in Britain. Having served as Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies since 2011, his expertise on matters of public spending and global economic trends have provided invaluable insight to the public and policymakers alike. Johnson’s column for the Times, as well as his acclaimed Austerity Audit for Radio 4, continue to define public discourse on economic policy and its implications. In October 2024 Johnson brought his expertise to the Intelligence Squared stage to reflect on a year of seismic change and assess the impact of the 2024 general election on the country’s economic future. Does Starmer have what it takes to grow the economy? How can Britain hope to compete with innovation in tech and AI on the global stage? What shape should defence spending take in an increasingly volatile world, and how can we begin to tackle domestic issues such as child poverty, cost of living, a crippled NHS and a stubborn housing crisis? Joining Johnson in conversation is BBC News presenter and Royal Correspondent, Jonny Dymond.

This recording is part of The Intelligence Squared Economic Outlook series of events made in partnership with Guinness Global Investors, an independent British fund manager that helps both individuals and institutions harness the future drivers of growth to achieve their investment goals.

To find out more visit: https://www.guinnessgi.com/

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