The Intelligence Squared Economic Outlook, with Paul Johnson, Part One

Oct 3, 2024

Paul Johnson, an influential economist and Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, joins BBC News presenter Jonny Dymond for a deep dive into Britain’s economic outlook post-election. They discuss the challenges of high taxes paired with underfunded public services, the impact of external shocks like Brexit, and the need for effective tax reform. Johnson assesses the potential of the new Labour administration to stimulate growth, while tackling pressing issues like child poverty and the housing crisis amidst rising public debt.

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INSIGHT

UK Economy Overview

The UK economy shows some positive signs like growth and rising wages.
However, this follows a long period of poor growth and no real wage increases since 2007.

INSIGHT

Public Finances Strain

High taxes, high debt, and increased spending create public finance strain.
Poor growth, high debt interest payments, and growing health and disability benefit costs contribute to this.

INSIGHT

Tax Trends

UK taxes are high historically but remain lower than in Western Europe.
A 3% national income tax rise is likely permanent due to past spending trends and lack of further cuts.

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Paul Johnson is the economist who has set the terms of so much political debate over the past few decades in Britain. Having served as Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies since 2011, his expertise on matters of public spending and global economic trends have provided invaluable insight to the public and policymakers alike. Johnson’s column for the Times, as well as his acclaimed Austerity Audit for Radio 4, continue to define public discourse on economic policy and its implications. In October 2024 Johnson brought his expertise to the Intelligence Squared stage to reflect on a year of seismic change and assess the impact of the 2024 general election on the country’s economic future. Does Starmer have what it takes to grow the economy? How can Britain hope to compete with innovation in tech and AI on the global stage? What shape should defence spending take in an increasingly volatile world, and how can we begin to tackle domestic issues such as child poverty, cost of living, a crippled NHS and a stubborn housing crisis? Joining Johnson in conversation is BBC News presenter and Royal Correspondent, Jonny Dymond.

This recording is part of The Intelligence Squared Economic Outlook series of events made in partnership with Guinness Global Investors, an independent British fund manager that helps both individuals and institutions harness the future drivers of growth to achieve their investment goals.

To find out more visit: https://www.guinnessgi.com/

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