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Intelligence Squared

The Intelligence Squared Economic Outlook, with Paul Johnson, Part One

Oct 3, 2024
Paul Johnson, an influential economist and Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, joins BBC News presenter Jonny Dymond to dissect Britain’s economic landscape. They delve into the impact of Brexit and COVID-19, the pressing issues of child poverty, and the NHS crisis. Johnson highlights the tug-of-war between public spending and high taxes, advocating for honest dialogue on fiscal responsibility. The discussion also touches on the challenges of balancing economic growth with environmental sustainability and the rising cost of healthcare.
45:59

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The UK economy shows modest growth signs, but past economic shocks like Brexit still pose risks to future stability.
  • Public finances are strained by high taxation and underfunding of services, necessitating transparent discussions about tax increases and fiscal responsibility.

Deep dives

The Current State of the British Economy

The British economy shows signs of modest growth, with recent quarters reflecting increases of around 0.5% to 0.6%, translating into an annual growth rate of approximately 2%. However, this positive trend comes after a lengthy period of stagnation, particularly since the financial crisis of 2007-2008, during which wages saw minimal growth and productivity faltered. Inflation rates have dropped, allowing real wages to rise for the first time in years, yet the looming effects of past economic shocks, such as Brexit and the energy crisis, continue to weigh heavily on future growth projections. Overall, while the immediate outlook appears somewhat optimistic, uncertainty persists, especially regarding the sustainability of these growth rates moving into the latter half of the year.

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