Are we reaching an end-game between Russia and Ukraine?
Sep 20, 2024
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Mark Urban, a journalist and bestselling author known for his expertise in diplomacy and conflict, dives deep into the evolving situation between Russia and Ukraine. He discusses President Zelenskyy's plans for victory and the complexities surrounding a potential peace deal. The conversation delves into how the U.S. presidential election may shape international dynamics, contrasting views from political figures like Trump and Harris. Urban also reflects on the emotional toll of the war and the broader geopolitical landscape influencing both sides.
Ukraine's recent drone strike on Russian territory signals escalating military engagement and complicates the path to potential peace talks.
The outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election is crucial as it may significantly influence support for Ukraine and the conflict's trajectory.
Deep dives
Impact of the Recent Drone Attack in Russia
A significant drone attack by Ukraine targeted a large ammunition depot in Torupets, Russia, resulting in a blast that registered on earthquake monitoring equipment due to its intensity. This incident illustrates the evolving dynamics of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, with Ukraine increasingly striking deep into Russian territory, raising concerns about the implications for regional stability. The attack has reportedly contributed to the ongoing discussions about the potential for a ceasefire or peace arrangement, reflecting the complexities surrounding military engagements and their repercussions. Ultimately, the effectiveness of such measures may depend heavily on the political landscape and leadership choices, particularly in the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
The Role of U.S. Presidential Politics
The future of support for Ukraine is seen as closely tied to the political outcome of the U.S. presidential election. A victory for Donald Trump could lead to immediate calls for peace talks that may validate Russian territorial gains, altering the trajectory of the conflict significantly. In contrast, a win for Kamala Harris might ensure ongoing, if not increased, support for Ukraine, as her stance against Putin and advocacy for Ukraine’s position differ markedly from Trump’s views. This political divide highlights the strategic importance of U.S. leadership in determining the conflict's direction and the potential for future diplomatic resolutions.
Challenges to Peace Negotiations
Negotiations for a lasting peace deal appear daunting due to the heavy toll of the conflict, with substantial casualties on both sides creating deep-seated bitterness. Historical grievances, such as war crimes, further complicate the prospects of any settlement that meets both sides' war aims without compromising national pride. Both Ukraine and Russia are facing significant challenges, including troop shortages and internal pressures, which could shape their willingness to consider a ceasefire or diplomatic engagement. However, the likelihood of a ceasefire may hinge on external political factors, such as U.S. support, implicating wider geopolitical influences in the pursuit of peace.
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On today's show Jon asks whether we're edging closer to the end of the war in Ukraine. Two and a half years on from Russia's invasion, President Zelenskyy is confident he now has a plan for victory. But how realistic is this? What might a peace deal look like? And how will the outcome of the US Presidential election affect it?
To answer all these questions and more, Jon is joined in the studio by journalist and bestselling author Mark Urban, an expert in diplomacy and conflict.
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