Goldman Sachs The Markets The 1982 playbook
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Feb 14, 2025 
Anshul Sehgal, Head of US interest rate products at Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets, shares his expertise on the recent surge in inflation that took the market by surprise. He discusses how fiscal policies, immigration control, and tariffs are influencing economic growth. The conversation dives into the historical parallels with the Reagan era, exploring today's interest rates and globalization effects. Sehgal provides insightful strategies for investors, emphasizing the importance of staying grounded amidst uncertainties in market trends.
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January CPI Report Analysis
- Core inflation rose 3.3% year over year, primarily due to a few specific components, not broad price increases.
- Anshul Sehgal believes this print alone shouldn't worry the Fed about renewed inflationary pressures, but the new administration's policies are a concern.
Impact of New Administration Policies
- The new administration's policies, including immigration control and tariffs, are inflationary but may also stimulate growth.
- Sehgal compares the current situation to Reagan's policies in the early 1980s.
Investment Advice
- Despite market volatility, structural themes like AI, resource consumption, and US exceptionalism remain promising for investors.
- Sehgal suggests owning corporate credit and stocks, along with a stronger dollar, is a good strategy in an inflationary environment.