In this episode of The Retail Pilot, host Ken Pilot welcomes Jan Rogers Kniffen, CEO of J Rogers Kniffen Worldwide and retail industry expert, to discuss the current state and future of retail. Key Topics Discussed: Post-Election Retail Bounce

• Jan predicts a post-election retail bounce, as seen in previous presidential election years
• Discretionary retail is currently running at zero inflation, making it attractive to consumers

Fourth Quarter Outlook

• Despite potential headwinds, Jan expects a strong fourth quarter
• Forecasts 3.5-4% sales growth, similar to last year
• Believes discretionary goods will perform well due to their perceived value compared to inflating services

Walmart vs. Target

• Walmart is outperforming Target significantly
• Walmart is attracting higher-income customers, traditionally Target's demographic
• Walmart's focus on in-store experience and competitive pricing is paying off

Off-Price Retail Sector

• TJ Maxx ranked as the fifth-best retailer in America by Jan
• Concerns about over-saturation in the off-price sector
• Potential challenges for off-price retailers as the market matures

Department Store Future

• Predicts most department stores will go private by the end of 2026
• Cites lower interest rates and increased real estate values as factors facilitating buyouts
• Mentions Nordstrom, Macy's, and Kohl's as potential candidates for privatization

Tariffs and Manufacturing

• Discussion on the impact of potential tariffs, especially on goods from China
• Many retailers have already reduced their exposure to Chinese manufacturing
• Predicts that moderate tariff increases might be absorbed by Chinese manufacturers rather than passed on to consumers

Notable Quotes:

"May the bounce be with you." - Jan Rogers Kniffen on the post-election retail bounce

"I think it's come down to who can do this stuff as opposed to where you happen to be." - Jan Rogers Kniffen on retail performance

Closing Thoughts:

Jan expresses optimism for the retail sector going into the fourth quarter and 2025, despite potential challenges. He emphasizes the importance of execution and adaptation in the evolving retail landscape.

Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.